[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 281204
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2005

THE PURPOSE OF THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO REVISE THE INTENSITY OF
KATRINA TO CATEGORY FIVE.  AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
REPORTED A PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 153 KNOTS...WHICH
CORRESPONDS TO MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 140 KNOTS.
OBVIOUSLY...THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW STRONG KATRINA WILL BE AT
LANDFALL.  WE HAVE VERY LIMITED SKILL IN PREDICTING THIS.
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY...DUE TO EYEWALL REPLACEMENTS...ARE
LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  NEVERTHELESS...KATRINA IS
EXPECTED TO BE A DEVASTING CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE HURRICANE AT
LANDFALL.

NO CHANGES TO THE TRACK OR WIND RADII FORECASTS HAVE BEEN MADE.


FORECASTER PASCH/KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      28/1200Z 25.7N  87.7W   140 KT
 12HR VT     28/1800Z 26.3N  88.4W   140 KT
 24HR VT     29/0600Z 28.0N  89.4W   140 KT
 36HR VT     29/1800Z 30.0N  89.8W   135 KT
 48HR VT     30/0600Z 32.3N  89.3W    65 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     31/0600Z 37.5N  86.0W    35 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     01/0600Z 42.0N  79.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     02/0600Z 47.0N  70.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

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