[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT72 KNHC 280841
SPFAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA PROBABILITIES NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE  87.4 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  1AM CDT WED AUG 31 2005

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

28.0N  89.4W      38  X  X  1 39   MOBILE AL          1 17  4  1 23
30.0N  89.8W       7 21  X  X 28   GULFPORT MS        3 21  2  X 26
32.3N  89.3W       X  7 14  1 22   BURAS LA          17 12  X  1 30
JACKSONVILLE FL    X  X  X  3  3   NEW ORLEANS LA     7 21  1  X 29
SAVANNAH GA        X  X  X  4  4   NEW IBERIA LA      3 20  1  X 24
CHARLESTON SC      X  X  X  3  3   PORT ARTHUR TX     X  9  2  1 12
MYRTLE BEACH SC    X  X  X  3  3   GALVESTON TX       X  4  1  1  6
WILMINGTON NC      X  X  X  2  2   FREEPORT TX        X  1  1  X  2
CEDAR KEY FL       X  X  1  1  2   GULF 29N 85W       1  3  3  1  8
ST MARKS FL        X  1  3  3  7   GULF 29N 87W      10  8  1  X 19
APALACHICOLA FL    X  3  4  2  9   GULF 28N 89W      39  X  X  X 39
PANAMA CITY FL     X  5  5  1 11   GULF 28N 91W      26  2  X  X 28
PENSACOLA FL       1 12  5  1 19   GULF 28N 93W       6  5  X  1 12

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  1AM MON
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  1AM MON TO  1PM MON
C FROM  1PM MON TO  1AM TUE
D FROM  1AM TUE TO  1AM WED
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  1AM WED
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER KNABB


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