[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 280624
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES..

THE CENTER OF CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE KATRINA IS NEAR
25.1N 86.8W AT 28/0600 UTC. IT IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST
7 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 935 MB.
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE NEAR 125 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 150 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SURROUND KATRINA COMPLETELY FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 84W AND 88W.
ONE BAND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS STILL IS SOUTH OF KATRINA FROM
WESTERN CUBA TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO JUST NORTH OF BELIZE.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 41W/42W WITH A SURFACE
1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THIS LOW CENTER MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO
18N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W SOUTH OF 19N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND CLOUDINESS FROM
THE 41W/42W WAVE AND LOW CENTER NEARLY APPEAR TO BE CATCHING UP
TO THIS WAVE MOVED. NO DEEP SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ 9N14W 8N25W 12N33W 12N39W 12N45W 15N52W 15N56W 11N64W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 20W AND 33W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM
6N TO 12N BETWEEN 13W AND 20W. A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 19N18W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
HURRICANE KATRINA IS THE MAIN FOCUS OF WEATHER IN THE
ATLANTIC BASIN...IT IS NOW A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SURROUND KATRINA COMPLETELY FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 84W AND 88W.
ONE BAND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS STILL IS SOUTH OF KATRINA FROM
WESTERN CUBA TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO JUST NORTH OF BELIZE. A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF
NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ONE BAND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS STILL IS SOUTH OF HURRICANE
KATRINA FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO JUST NORTH OF BELIZE. UPPER LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...THE RESULT OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE KATRINA...COVERS MOST OF
THIS AREA WEST OF 70W. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
24 HOURS AGO...FROM 31N65W TO THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WATERS...STILL AFFECTS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS TROUGH NOW RUNS
FROM AN ATLANTIC MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER NEAR 30N60W TO 23N61W TO SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS WEDGED INTO THE REST OF THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS SOUTHEAST OF
20N60W 16N66W 14N71W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW EXISTS FROM
15N TO 20N BETWEEN 68W AND 76W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
WERE IN THIS SAME AREA ABOUT SIX HOURS AGO HAVE BEEN WEAKENING
DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN THIS
AREA HAVE BEEN WARMING.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH A RIDGE...SEPARATE FROM THE
ONE ON TOP OF HURRICANE KATRINA...EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S.A. CURVING INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT
COMBINES WITH THE FLOW FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 31N63W-
TO-EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. A SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT
IS ALONG 32N/33N BETWEEN 60W AND 78W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
AND THE DENSEST CLOUDS ARE FOUND FROM 29N TO 34N BETWEEN 60W AND
75W. THE 28/0000 UTC RUN OF THE GFS MODEL STILL SHOWS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG THIS STATIONARY FRONT
EARLY MONDAY. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE AREA OF THE
CYCLONIC FLOW OF THE TROUGH FROM 20N TO NORTH OF 32N BETWEEN
46W AND 62W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS IN BETWEEN
THE 34N23W CYCLONIC CENTER AND THE 30N60W-TO-PUERTO RICO TROUGH.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 34N23W
WITH NO SURFACE REFLECTION. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 10W AND 32W.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 50W.

$$
MT


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