[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT72 KNHC 280611
SPFAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA SPECIAL PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE  86.8 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  7PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

27.0N  89.0W      39  X  X  X 39   MOBILE AL          X 12  7  1 20
29.0N  89.8W      10 17  1  X 28   GULFPORT MS        1 16  5  1 23
31.0N  89.8W       X 13  8  1 22   BURAS LA           6 19  1  1 27
DAYTONA BEACH FL   X  X  X  2  2   NEW ORLEANS LA     2 20  3  X 25
JACKSONVILLE FL    X  X  X  4  4   NEW IBERIA LA      1 17  3  1 22
SAVANNAH GA        X  X  X  4  4   PORT ARTHUR TX     X  8  5  1 14
CHARLESTON SC      X  X  X  3  3   GALVESTON TX       X  5  4  1 10
MYRTLE BEACH SC    X  X  X  2  2   FREEPORT TX        X  2  3  1  6
WILMINGTON NC      X  X  X  2  2   PORT O CONNOR TX   X  1  X  1  2
TAMPA FL           X  X  1  1  2   GULF 29N 85W       1  4  3  2 10
CEDAR KEY FL       X  X  2  2  4   GULF 29N 87W       6 11  2  X 19
ST MARKS FL        X  1  3  5  9   GULF 28N 89W      26  4  X  1 31
APALACHICOLA FL    X  3  5  3 11   GULF 28N 91W      17 10  X  X 27
PANAMA CITY FL     X  5  5  3 13   GULF 28N 93W       3 12  1  X 16
PENSACOLA FL       X  9  7  2 18   GULF 28N 95W       X  3  2  1  6

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  7PM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  7PM SUN TO  7AM MON
C FROM  7AM MON TO  7PM MON
D FROM  7PM MON TO  7PM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  7PM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER KNABB


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