[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT72 KNHC 272032
SPFAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA PROBABILITIES NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE  85.6 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  1PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

25.8N  88.3W      43  X  X  X 43   NEW ORLEANS LA     X  9 11  1 21
27.5N  89.6W      14 15  X  X 29   NEW IBERIA LA      X  6 12  2 20
29.6N  90.0W       X 14  7  1 22   PORT ARTHUR TX     X  1 10  4 15
JACKSONVILLE FL    X  X  X  3  3   GALVESTON TX       X  1  8  3 12
SAVANNAH GA        X  X  X  3  3   FREEPORT TX        X  1  6  3 10
CHARLESTON SC      X  X  X  2  2   PORT O CONNOR TX   X  X  3  3  6
TAMPA FL           X  X  X  2  2   CORPUSCHRISTI TX   X  X  1  2  3
CEDAR KEY FL       X  X  1  3  4   GULF 29N 85W       X  3  4  3 10
ST MARKS FL        X  X  3  5  8   GULF 29N 87W       2 10  4  1 17
APALACHICOLA FL    X  1  5  4 10   GULF 28N 89W      11 15  1  X 27
PANAMA CITY FL     X  2  6  4 12   GULF 28N 91W       2 21  2  X 25
PENSACOLA FL       X  3  9  4 16   GULF 28N 93W       X 11  5  1 17
MOBILE AL          X  4 11  3 18   GULF 28N 95W       X  2  5  2  9
GULFPORT MS        X  6 11  3 20   GULF 27N 96W       X  X  2  2  4
BURAS LA           1 15  6  1 23

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  1PM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  1PM SUN TO  1AM MON
C FROM  1AM MON TO  1PM MON
D FROM  1PM MON TO  1PM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  1PM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER BEVEN


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