[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT72 KNHC 271430
SPFAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA PROBABILITIES NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE  85.0 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  7AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

25.3N  87.6W      42  X  X  X 42   NEW ORLEANS LA     X  3 13  3 19
26.7N  89.0W      17 12  X  X 29   NEW IBERIA LA      X  1 12  5 18
28.6N  89.9W       X 15  7  1 23   PORT ARTHUR TX     X  X  7  7 14
DAYTONA BEACH FL   X  X  X  2  2   GALVESTON TX       X  X  6  6 12
JACKSONVILLE FL    X  X  X  4  4   FREEPORT TX        X  X  4  6 10
SAVANNAH GA        X  X  X  3  3   PORT O CONNOR TX   X  X  2  5  7
CHARLESTON SC      X  X  X  2  2   CORPUSCHRISTI TX   X  X  1  3  4
VENICE FL          X  X  1  2  3   BROWNSVILLE TX     X  X  X  2  2
TAMPA FL           X  X  1  2  3   GULF 29N 85W       X  3  5  3 11
CEDAR KEY FL       X  X  2  3  5   GULF 29N 87W       1  8  7  2 18
ST MARKS FL        X  X  3  6  9   GULF 28N 89W       3 18  3  X 24
APALACHICOLA FL    X  1  5  5 11   GULF 28N 91W       X 15  6  1 22
PANAMA CITY FL     X  1  6  5 12   GULF 28N 93W       X  4 10  3 17
PENSACOLA FL       X  1  9  5 15   GULF 28N 95W       X  X  6  4 10
MOBILE AL          X  1 10  6 17   GULF 27N 96W       X  X  2  4  6
GULFPORT MS        X  2 12  4 18   GULF 25N 96W       X  X  1  1  2
BURAS LA           X  8 11  2 21

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  7AM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  7AM SUN TO  7PM SUN
C FROM  7PM SUN TO  7AM MON
D FROM  7AM MON TO  7AM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  7AM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER BEVEN


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