[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT72 KNHC 270840
SPFAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA PROBABILITIES NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE  84.4 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

25.0N  87.0W      43  X  X  X 43   BURAS LA           X  3 11  4 18
26.0N  88.7W      19  9  1  X 29   NEW ORLEANS LA     X  1  9  7 17
27.4N  89.9W       1 17  4  1 23   NEW IBERIA LA      X  X  9  7 16
DAYTONA BEACH FL   X  X  X  2  2   PORT ARTHUR TX     X  X  4  9 13
JACKSONVILLE FL    X  X  X  3  3   GALVESTON TX       X  X  4  8 12
SAVANNAH GA        X  X  X  2  2   FREEPORT TX        X  X  3  8 11
MARCO ISLAND FL    X  1  X  1  2   PORT O CONNOR TX   X  X  2  6  8
FT MYERS FL        X  1  X  1  2   CORPUSCHRISTI TX   X  X  1  4  5
VENICE FL          1  1  1  1  4   BROWNSVILLE TX     X  X  1  2  3
TAMPA FL           X  1  1  2  4   GULF 29N 85W       X  2  4  5 11
CEDAR KEY FL       X  X  1  4  5   GULF 29N 87W       X  6  6  4 16
ST MARKS FL        X  X  2  6  8   GULF 28N 89W       1 14  5  2 22
APALACHICOLA FL    X  1  3  6 10   GULF 28N 91W       X 10  9  2 21
PANAMA CITY FL     X  1  3  7 11   GULF 28N 93W       X  3 10  4 17
PENSACOLA FL       X  X  6  7 13   GULF 28N 95W       X  X  6  6 12
MOBILE AL          X  X  6  8 14   GULF 27N 96W       X  X  3  5  8
GULFPORT MS        X  1  7  8 16   GULF 25N 96W       X  X  2  2  4

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2AM SUN TO  2PM SUN
C FROM  2PM SUN TO  2AM MON
D FROM  2AM MON TO  2AM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER KNABB


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