[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT72 KNHC 270247
SPFAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA PROBABILITIES NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE  83.6 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  8PM EDT MON AUG 29 2005

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

25.0N  86.0W      46  X  X  X 46   BURAS LA           X  2 11  6 19
26.0N  87.5W      20 10  X  X 30   NEW ORLEANS LA     X  X  8  9 17
27.0N  89.0W       1 15  6  1 23   NEW IBERIA LA      X  X  2 12 14
MUAN 219N 850W     2  X  X  X  2   PORT ARTHUR TX     X  X  X  9  9
JACKSONVILLE FL    X  X  X  2  2   GALVESTON TX       X  X  X  7  7
VENICE FL          1  1  X  1  3   FREEPORT TX        X  X  X  5  5
TAMPA FL           X  1  1  1  3   PORT O CONNOR TX   X  X  X  3  3
CEDAR KEY FL       X  1  1  3  5   GULF 29N 85W       1  9  3  2 15
ST MARKS FL        X  1  4  4  9   GULF 29N 87W       1 13  5  2 21
APALACHICOLA FL    X  5  5  3 13   GULF 28N 89W       X 11  9  2 22
PANAMA CITY FL     X  5  6  4 15   GULF 28N 91W       X  1 11  5 17
PENSACOLA FL       X  2  9  6 17   GULF 28N 93W       X  X  2  9 11
MOBILE AL          X  1  8  8 17   GULF 28N 95W       X  X  X  6  6
GULFPORT MS        X  1  8  9 18   GULF 27N 96W       X  X  X  3  3

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8PM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  8PM SAT TO  8AM SUN
C FROM  8AM SUN TO  8PM SUN
D FROM  8PM SUN TO  8PM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8PM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER AVILA


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