[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT72 KNHC 260843
SPFAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE  81.5 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2AM EDT MON AUG 29 2005

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

25.4N  83.8W      48  X  X  X 48   VENICE FL         32  X  X  X 32
25.9N  84.6W      35  X  1  X 36   TAMPA FL          13  4  1  2 20
26.6N  85.4W      17  6  1  1 25   CEDAR KEY FL       4  7  4  3 18
MUHA 230N 824W     6  X  X  1  7   ST MARKS FL        X  4  6  7 17
MUAN 219N 850W     X  1  1  X  2   APALACHICOLA FL    X  6  6  6 18
MARATHON FL       99  X  X  X 99   PANAMA CITY FL     X  2  7  8 17
MIAMI FL          99  X  X  X 99   PENSACOLA FL       X  X  3 11 14
W PALM BEACH FL    X  1  1  1  3   MOBILE AL          X  X  1 11 12
FT PIERCE FL       1  1  1  2  5   GULFPORT MS        X  X  X 11 11
COCOA BEACH FL     X  2  2  3  7   BURAS LA           X  X  1 10 11
DAYTONA BEACH FL   X  2  4  4 10   NEW ORLEANS LA     X  X  X  8  8
JACKSONVILLE FL    X  1  4  5 10   NEW IBERIA LA      X  X  X  5  5
SAVANNAH GA        X  X  1  5  6   GULF 29N 85W       2  9  5  4 20
CHARLESTON SC      X  X  X  3  3   GULF 29N 87W       X  2  7  8 17
KEY WEST FL       99  X  X  X 99   GULF 28N 89W       X  X  3 10 13
MARCO ISLAND FL   99  X  X  X 99   GULF 28N 91W       X  X  X  8  8
FT MYERS FL       53  X  X  X 53   GULF 28N 93W       X  X  X  3  3

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2AM SAT TO  2PM SAT
C FROM  2PM SAT TO  2AM SUN
D FROM  2AM SUN TO  2AM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER KNABB


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