[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 260019
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA IS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.1
NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.9 WEST OR ABOUT 15 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF
FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA AND ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
BOCA RATON FLORIDA.  KATRINA IS MOVING WESTWARD 5 KT. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB.  THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. PLEASE
READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS
MIATCPAT1/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE EYE MAKING CONTACT WITH THE FLORIDA
COAST.  NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN
78W-81W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS EXTENDS FROM 21N-28N
BETWEEN 76W-84W TO INCLUDE WESTERN CUBA.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 17N45W
MOVING WEST ABOUT 10 KT.  THIS LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL SHEAR IS HAMPERING THE
PROCESS.  CONVECTION IS WELL E OF THE CENTER.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN
39W-43W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING
WEST 10 KT. LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED NEAR
13N33W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 33W-34W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR JAMAICA ALONG 78W SOUTH OF
20N.  A LOW TO MID LEVEL CIRCULATION COVERS THE ENTIRE SW
CARIBBEAN S OF 19N BETWEEN 75W-85W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 74W-82W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN
81W-86W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 7N30W 9N36W 16N45W 11N50W 10N60W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 20W-30W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN
36W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STILL WEAK OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO PRODUCING LIGHT E-NE WINDS. THE OBVIOUS BIG FEATURE IS
HURRICANE KATRINA...NOW MAKING LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE OVER S FLORIDA MOVING W. SEE ABOVE.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
NEAR 25N90W MOVING W...AND WELL DISTANCED FROM HURRICANE
KATRINA.  A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOW COVERS THE EASTERN GULF E OF
86W.  EXPECT LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC WINDS AROUND KATRINA TO DOMINATE
THE ENTIRE GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
HURRICANE KATRINA'S SOUTHERN FEEDER BAND IS OVER W CUBA. SEE
ABOVE.  A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 8N74W
PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N-12N
BETWEEN 70W-75W.  A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W S OF 20N. SEE
ABOVE.  IN ADDITION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 70W-73W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 87W-90W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...MOSTLY NE-E FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE.  FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS...EXPECT W CUBA TO
GET CONTINUED CONVECTION DUE TO KATRINA...AND CENTRAL AMERICA TO
GET CONTINUED CONVECTION DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE.  MODERATE
TRADE WINDS WILL DOMINATE S OF 18N.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
CONVECTION FROM KATRINA COVERS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS W OF 78W.
A 1028 MB HIGH W OF THE AZORES NEAR 38N36W DOMINATES THE
ATLANTIC AND IS STATIONARY.  WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW COVERS THE
ENTIRE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC E OF 70W BETWEEN 20N-30N.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF
70W.  CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS FURTHER E AT 27N64W.  ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 15N40W.
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ALSO OVER W AFRICA NEAR 20N5W.

$$
FORMOSA


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