[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT72 KNHC 252040
SPFAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE  79.9 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2005

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

26.1N  81.7W      49  X  X  X 49   VENICE FL         32  1  X  X 33
26.4N  82.8W      28  1  1  X 30   TAMPA FL          23  2  1  1 27
27.0N  83.7W      10 10  2  1 23   CEDAR KEY FL       5  9  4  3 21
MUHA 230N 824W     1  2  X  1  4   ST MARKS FL        X  2  6  8 16
MYGF 266N 787W    99  X  X  X 99   APALACHICOLA FL    X  1  6  9 16
MARATHON FL       23  1  X  X 24   PANAMA CITY FL     X  X  4 10 14
MIAMI FL          99  X  X  X 99   PENSACOLA FL       X  X  1 10 11
W PALM BEACH FL   99  X  X  X 99   MOBILE AL          X  X  X  9  9
FT PIERCE FL      58  X  X  X 58   GULFPORT MS        X  X  X  8  8
COCOA BEACH FL    30  X  X  X 30   BURAS LA           X  X  X  8  8
DAYTONA BEACH FL  13  4  2  2 21   NEW ORLEANS LA     X  X  X  7  7
JACKSONVILLE FL    1  7  4  5 17   NEW IBERIA LA      X  X  X  4  4
SAVANNAH GA        X  1  3  7 11   PORT ARTHUR TX     X  X  X  2  2
CHARLESTON SC      X  X  2  6  8   GALVESTON TX       X  X  X  2  2
MYRTLE BEACH SC    X  X  X  5  5   GULF 29N 85W       X  3  7  7 17
WILMINGTON NC      X  X  X  3  3   GULF 29N 87W       X  X  3 10 13
MOREHEAD CITY NC   X  X  X  2  2   GULF 28N 89W       X  X  1  9 10
KEY WEST FL       17  1  X  1 19   GULF 28N 91W       X  X  X  6  6
MARCO ISLAND FL   47  X  X  X 47   GULF 28N 93W       X  X  X  3  3
FT MYERS FL       46  X  X  X 46

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM FRI
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2PM FRI TO  2AM SAT
C FROM  2AM SAT TO  2PM SAT
D FROM  2PM SAT TO  2PM SUN
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM SUN
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER STEWART


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