[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT72 KNHC 250243
SPFAT2
TROPICAL STORM KATRINA PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE  78.0 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  8PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2005

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

26.0N  79.5W      55  X  X  X 55   MYRTLE BEACH SC    X  X  X  2  2
26.0N  80.5W      30  1  X  1 32   KEY WEST FL        4  9  2  2 17
26.3N  81.5W      14  9  1  1 25   MARCO ISLAND FL   11 10  1  2 24
MUCF 221N 805W     X  X  1  1  2   FT MYERS FL        8 11  3  1 23
MUSN 216N 826W     X  X  1  1  2   VENICE FL          1 12  5  3 21
MUHA 230N 824W     X  3  2  2  7   TAMPA FL           1  8  6  4 19
MUAN 219N 850W     X  X  X  2  2   CEDAR KEY FL       X  1  7  8 16
MYAK 241N 776W     1  X  1  2  4   ST MARKS FL        X  X  1 10 11
MYNN 251N 775W    99  X  X  X 99   APALACHICOLA FL    X  X  1 10 11
MYGF 266N 787W    99  X  X  X 99   PANAMA CITY FL     X  X  X  9  9
MARATHON FL       11  6  1  1 19   PENSACOLA FL       X  X  X  6  6
MIAMI FL          32  1  X  X 33   MOBILE AL          X  X  X  4  4
W PALM BEACH FL   40  X  X  X 40   GULFPORT MS        X  X  X  4  4
FT PIERCE FL      28  1  1  X 30   BURAS LA           X  X  X  4  4
COCOA BEACH FL    15  6  1  2 24   NEW ORLEANS LA     X  X  X  3  3
DAYTONA BEACH FL   2  8  5  4 19   GULF 29N 85W       X  X  2 11 13
JACKSONVILLE FL    X  1  4  8 13   GULF 29N 87W       X  X  X  9  9
SAVANNAH GA        X  X  1  6  7   GULF 28N 89W       X  X  X  6  6
CHARLESTON SC      X  X  X  4  4   GULF 28N 91W       X  X  X  3  3

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8PM THU
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  8PM THU TO  8AM FRI
C FROM  8AM FRI TO  8PM FRI
D FROM  8PM FRI TO  8PM SAT
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8PM SAT
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER AVILA


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