[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT32 KNHC 242338
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005

...KATRINA BEGINS TO TURN MORE WESTWARD...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
INDICATES LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA
CITY...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA LATER THIS EVENING.

AT 8 PM...0000 EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS LATER TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH TO TITUSVILLE...INCLUDING
ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND AND FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS
FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA
CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.6 WEST OR ABOUT
65 MILES...105 KM...NORTH OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 165 MILES... 270
KM...EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA.

RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT KATRINA HAS BEGUN TO
TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND IS NOW MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AND WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR.  A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND INTO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS THURSDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED REMAIN NEAR  45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  KATRINA HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES ...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY OBSERVED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS...AND SOUTH FLORIDA... WITH TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
6 TO 12 INCHES AND ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...26.0 N... 77.6 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR  9 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

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