[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KMFL 242110
HLSMFL
AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-250400-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
414 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005

...FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION FOR PERSONS IN MIAMI-DADE...BROWARD...
PALM BEACH...COLLIER...HENDRY...GLADES AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
AT 5 PM...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA BEGINNING THURSDAY
MORNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR
COASTAL METROPOLITAN PALM BEACH...BROWARD AND MIAMI DADE COUNTIES AND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND BISCAYNE BAY. AN INLAND
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND AREAS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED FOR SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA THURSDAY.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 PM EDT...TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.6
NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.2 WEST OR ABOUT 185 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY FORWARD SLOWER SPEED IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...SUSTAINED
WINDS FROM 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS IN THE
WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A CHANCE THAT KATRINA COULD
REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH...74 MPH OR GREATER...IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS...BEFORE
MAKING LANDFALL IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. PERSONS...ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT NEED EXTRA
TIME FOR PREPARATIONS SUCH AS MARINERS...SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE
QUICK ACTION SHOULD A HURRICANE WARNING BE ISSUED.

LISTEN FOR INSTRUCTIONS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS WHO
WILL BE TAKING ACTIONS RELATED TO EVACUATION AND SHELTERING ON THURSDAY.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
AT THIS TIME...MAXIMUM STORM TIDE LEVELS OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE
NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. HOWEVER...IF THE STORM INTENSIFIES
GREATER THAN FORECAST...HIGHER STORM TIDE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE. AS KATRINA
APPROACHES THE COAST...MORE SPECIFIC STORM TIDE FORECASTS WILL BE PROVIDED.

...WIND IMPACTS...
KATRINA IS FORECAST TO REACH MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH JUST BEFORE THE
CENTER MOVES ASHORE. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN MOVING
INTO THE SOUTH FLORIDA ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND BEGIN
AFFECTING THE METRO SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD INLAND ON
FRIDAY. THESE WINDS COULD CAUSE TREE LIMBS TO BLOW DOWN OR TREES TO UPROOT
CAUSING POWER OUTAGES. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON THE FORECAST TRACK
AND PARTICULARLY INTENSITY AT THIS TIME. ANY CHANGE IN ANY OF THESE PARAMETERS
COULD CHANGE THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS FOR THE BETTER OR WORSE DEPENDING ON THE
SITUATION. THEREFORE...RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THE LATEST INFORMATION REGARDING THIS SYSTEM.

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE FORECAST TRACK...INTENSITY...AND SIZE OF
THE STORM...THE PROBABILITY OF EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ACROSS
METRO SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...FROM WEST PALM BEACH TO MIAMI...AT THIS TIME IS AROUND
55 TO 60 PERCENT. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE...AROUND 7 PERCENT...OF
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ACROSS METRO SOUTHEAST FLORIDA.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...
WINDS IN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST WILL BE
INCREASING LATE TONIGHT AND WILL LIKELY REACH SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS WINDS BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE...SEAS WILL
BUILD RAPIDLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM...AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN
PORT BEGINNING TONIGHT. INCREASING WAVES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MEAN A
HIGHER DANGER OF RIP CURRENTS BEGINNING ON THURSDAY.

...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS...
THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF KATRINA MEANS THAT THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TIME FOR
VERY HEAVY...PROBABLY FLOOD PRODUCING RAINS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...
WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS TO 15 TO 20 INCHES. AN EXTREME RAINFALL EVENT IS POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT. IN THE PAST...SIMILAR SLOW MOVING STORMS LIKE
IRENE IN 1999 AND THE DISTURBANCE OF OCTOBER 2 2000 HAVE PRODUCED LOCALIZED
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WITH WIDESPREAD
FLOODING THAT LASTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS. WHILE THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SOUTH FLORIDA RESIDENTS SHOULD PREPARE FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD PRODUCING
RAINS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES OCCURRING IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS
BEGINNING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY...MAINLY TO THE
NORTH OF THE CENTER.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE
AROUND 11 PM TODAY.

FOR A GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF THIS LOCAL STATEMENT...PLEASE GO TO
OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO AND CLICK ON THE GRAPHICAL
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ICON.

$$

LUSHINE
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