[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT72 KNHC 242026
SPFAT2
TROPICAL STORM KATRINA PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE  77.2 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2005

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

26.1N  78.8W      47  X  X  X 47   CHARLESTON SC      X  X  X  3  3
26.2N  79.7W      31  1  X  X 32   KEY WEST FL        2  4  3  4 13
26.3N  80.7W      19  3  1  1 24   MARCO ISLAND FL    8  7  2  3 20
MUCF 221N 805W     X  X  X  3  3   FT MYERS FL        7  8  3  3 21
MUSN 216N 826W     X  X  X  2  2   VENICE FL          2 10  4  4 20
MUHA 230N 824W     X  X  1  5  6   TAMPA FL           1  9  5  4 19
MUAN 219N 850W     X  X  X  2  2   CEDAR KEY FL       X  3  6  7 16
MYEG 235N 758W     X  X  1  1  2   ST MARKS FL        X  X  3  9 12
MYAK 241N 776W     5  1  1  2  9   APALACHICOLA FL    X  X  3  9 12
MYNN 251N 775W    99  X  X  X 99   PANAMA CITY FL     X  X  2  8 10
MYGF 266N 787W    48  X  X  X 48   PENSACOLA FL       X  X  X  6  6
MARATHON FL        5  4  3  3 15   MOBILE AL          X  X  X  4  4
MIAMI FL          20  2  1  1 24   GULFPORT MS        X  X  X  3  3
W PALM BEACH FL   26  2  X  1 29   BURAS LA           X  X  X  4  4
FT PIERCE FL      19  3  2  1 25   NEW ORLEANS LA     X  X  X  2  2
COCOA BEACH FL     9  7  3  3 22   GULF 29N 85W       X  1  4  8 13
DAYTONA BEACH FL   1  7  5  4 17   GULF 29N 87W       X  X  1  8  9
JACKSONVILLE FL    X  1  4  7 12   GULF 28N 89W       X  X  X  5  5
SAVANNAH GA        X  X  1  5  6   GULF 28N 91W       X  X  X  2  2

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM THU
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2PM THU TO  2AM FRI
C FROM  2AM FRI TO  2PM FRI
D FROM  2PM FRI TO  2PM SAT
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM SAT
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER STEWART


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