[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KMFL 241540
HLSMFL
AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-242200-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1135 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2005

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST COAST...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION FOR PERSONS IN MIAMI-DADE...BROWARD...
PALM BEACH...COLLIER...HENDRY...GLADES AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
AT 11 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL METROPOLITAN
PALM BEACH...BROWARD AND MIAMI DADE COUNTIES AND AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH
IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND METRO AREAS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED FOR INTERIOR
SOUTH FLORIDA...INCLUDING AREAS AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE...LATER TODAY AND FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THURSDAY. A FLOOD OUTLOOK HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL
OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR A POSSIBLE EXTREME RAINFALL EVENT.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 AM EDT...TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7
NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.7 WEST OR ABOUT 230 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI. KATRINA
IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH.  A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SPEED IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY IN SQUALLS TO THE EAST OF
THE CENTER. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...SUSTAINED
WINDS FROM 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS IN THE
WARNING AREA. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT KATRINA COULD REACH HURRICANE
STRENGTH BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA AND RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS BE PREPARED TO TAKE QUICK ACTION SHOULD
HURRICANE WARNING BE ISSUED.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
AT THIS TIME...MAXIMUM STORM TIDE LEVELS OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL
ARE POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
HOWEVER...IF THE STORM INTENSIFIES FURTHER THAN FORECAST...HIGHER STORM TIDE
LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE. AS THE STORM APPROACHES THE COAST...MORE SPECIFIC STORM
TIDE FORECASTS WILL BE PROVIDED.

...WIND IMPACTS...
KATRINA IS FORECAST TO MOVE AS A TROPICAL STORM ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
SHOULD BEGIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTH FLORIDA ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND BEGIN AFFECTING THE METRO SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND SPREAD INLAND ON FRIDAY. THESE WINDS COULD CAUSE TREE LIMBS TO BLOW
DOWN OR TREES TO UPROOT CAUSING POWER OUTAGES. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
ON THE FORECAST TRACK AND PARTICULARLY INTENSITY AT THIS TIME. ANY CHANGE IN ANY
OF THESE PARAMETERS COULD CHANGE THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS FOR THE BETTER OR
WORSE DEPENDING ON THE SITUATION. THEREFORE...RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST INFORMATION REGARDING THIS
SYSTEM.

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE FORECAST TRACK...INTENSITY...AND SIZE OF
THE STORM...THE PROBABILITY OF EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ACROSS
METRO SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...FROM WEST PALM BEACH TO MIAMI...AT THIS TIME IS AROUND
55 TO 60 PERCENT. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE...AROUND 7 PERCENT...OF
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ACROSS METRO SOUTHEAST FLORIDA.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...
WINDS IN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST
WILL BE INCREASING LATE TONIGHT AND WILL LIKELY REACH SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM
FORCE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS WINDS BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE...
SEAS WILL BUILD RAPIDLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM...AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
REMAIN IN PORT BEGINNING TONIGHT. INCREASING WAVES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
WILL MEAN A HIGHER DANGER OF RIP CURRENTS BEGINNING ON THURSDAY.

...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS...
THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF KATRINA MEANS THAT THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TIME FOR
VERY HEAVY...PROBABLY FLOOD PRODUCING RAINS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...
WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS TO 15 TO 20 INCHES. AN EXTREME RAINFALL EVENT IS POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT. IN THE PAST...SIMILAR SLOW MOVING STORMS LIKE
IRENE IN 1999 AND THE DISTURBANCE OF OCTOBER 2 2000 HAVE PRODUCED LOCALIZED
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WITH WIDESPREAD
FLOODING THAT LASTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS. WHILE THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SOUTH FLORIDA RESIDENTS SHOULD PREPARE FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD PRODUCING
RAINS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES OCCURRING IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS
BEGINNING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY...MAINLY TO THE
NORTH OF THE CENTER.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE
AROUND 6 PM TODAY.

FOR A GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF THIS LOCAL STATEMENT...PLEASE GO TO
OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO AND CLICK ON THE GRAPHICAL
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ICON.

$$

LUSHINE
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