[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT72 KNHC 241433
SPFAT2
TROPICAL STORM KATRINA PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE  76.7 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  8AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2005

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

25.9N  78.4W      49  X  X  X 49   SAVANNAH GA        X  X  X  4  4
26.0N  79.2W      34  X  X  X 34   KEY WEST FL        1  4  3  4 12
26.1N  80.1W      21  2  1  1 25   MARCO ISLAND FL    5  7  4  3 19
MUCM 214N 779W     X  X  X  2  2   FT MYERS FL        3  9  4  3 19
MUCF 221N 805W     X  X  X  3  3   VENICE FL          1  8  5  4 18
MUSN 216N 826W     X  X  X  2  2   TAMPA FL           X  7  5  5 17
MUHA 230N 824W     X  X  1  4  5   CEDAR KEY FL       X  2  5  7 14
MYSM 241N 745W     X  1  1  2  4   ST MARKS FL        X  X  2  8 10
MYEG 235N 758W    15  X  1  X 16   APALACHICOLA FL    X  X  2  8 10
MYAK 241N 776W    99  X  X  X 99   PANAMA CITY FL     X  X  1  8  9
MYNN 251N 775W    99  X  X  X 99   PENSACOLA FL       X  X  X  6  6
MYGF 266N 787W    37  X  X  1 38   MOBILE AL          X  X  X  4  4
MARATHON FL        4  5  3  3 15   GULFPORT MS        X  X  X  4  4
MIAMI FL          18  3  1  1 23   BURAS LA           X  X  X  4  4
W PALM BEACH FL   20  3  1  1 25   NEW ORLEANS LA     X  X  X  3  3
FT PIERCE FL      12  7  2  2 23   GULF 29N 85W       X  X  3  8 11
COCOA BEACH FL     4  9  4  3 20   GULF 29N 87W       X  X  1  7  8
DAYTONA BEACH FL   X  5  6  4 15   GULF 28N 89W       X  X  X  5  5
JACKSONVILLE FL    X  X  4  6 10   GULF 28N 91W       X  X  X  2  2

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8AM THU
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  8AM THU TO  8PM THU
C FROM  8PM THU TO  8AM FRI
D FROM  8AM FRI TO  8AM SAT
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8AM SAT
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER STEWART


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