[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KMFL 241249
HLSMFL
AMZ630-650-651-670-671-FLZ068-072-074-241600-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
849 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2005

...KATRINA IS BORN...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION FOR PERSONS IN THE METRO AREAS OF
MIAMI-DADE...BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
AT 8 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR METROPOLITAN PALM
BEACH...BROWARD AND MIAMI DADE COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA...INCLUDING AREAS AROUND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE...LATER TODAY. A FLOOD OUTLOOK HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR A POSSIBLE EXTREME RAINFALL EVENT.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 8 AM EDT...NEWLY NAMED TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4
NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.6 WEST OR ABOUT 235 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
MIAMI. KATRINA IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. THE STORM IS STILL SOMEWHAT LOPSIDED WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY IN SQUALLS TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTER. SOME CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...SUSTAINED WINDS
FROM 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE WATCH
AREA. RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD BEGIN THEIR PREPAREDNESS PLANS AND
BE READY TO TAKE ADDITIONAL ACTION SHOULD THE WATCH BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING
LATER TODAY.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
AT THIS TIME...MAXIMUM STORM TIDE LEVELS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. HOWEVER...IF
THE STORM INTENSIFIES FURTHER THAN FORECAST...HIGHER STORM TIDE LEVELS ARE
POSSIBLE. AS THE STORM APPROACHES THE COAST...MORE SPECIFIC STORM TIDE
FORECASTS WILL BE PROVIDED.

...WIND IMPACTS...
KATRINA IS FORECAST TO MOVE AS A TROPICAL STORM ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FROM
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
SHOULD BEGIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTH FLORIDA ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY
MORNING AND BEGIN AFFECTING THE METRO SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. THESE WINDS COULD
CAUSE TREE LIMBS TO BLOW DOWN OR TREES TO UPROOT CAUSING POWER OUTAGES. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON THE FORECAST TRACK AND PARTICULARLY INTENSITY AT
THIS TIME. ANY CHANGE IN ANY OF THESE PARAMETERS COULD CHANGE THE EXPECTED
WIND SPEEDS FOR THE BETTER OR WORSE DEPENDING ON THE SITUATION. THEREFORE...
RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION REGARDING THIS SYSTEM.

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE FORECAST TRACK...INTENSITY...AND SIZE OF
THE STORM...THE PROBABILITY OF EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ACROSS
METRO SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...FROM WEST PALM BEACH TO MIAMI...AT THIS TIME IS AROUND
50 PERCENT. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE...FROM 4 TO 5 PERCENT...OF HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ACROSS METRO SOUTHEAST FLORIDA.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...
WINDS IN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST
WILL BE INCREASING LATER TONIGHT AND WILL LIKELY REACH SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM
FORCE THURSDAY MORNING. AS WINDS BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE...
SEAS WILL BUILD RAPIDLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM...AND SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT BEGINNING TONIGHT. INCREASING WAVES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL MEAN A HIGHER DANGER OF RIP CURRENTS BEGINNING ON THURSDAY.

...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS...
THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF KATRINA MEANS THAT THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TIME FOR
VERY HEAVY...PROBABLY FLOOD PRODUCING RAINS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...
WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS TO 15 INCHES. AN EXTREME RAINFALL EVENT IS POSSIBLE GIVEN
THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT. IN THE PAST...SIMILAR SLOW MOVING STORMS LIKE IRENE IN
1999 AND THE DISTURBANCE OF OCTOBER 2 2000 HAVE PRODUCED LOCALIZED RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WITH WIDESPREAD FLOODING
THAT LASTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS. WHILE THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SOUTH FLORIDA RESIDENTS SHOULD PREPARE FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD PRODUCING
RAINS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES OCCURRING IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS
BEGINNING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY...MAINLY TO THE
NORTH OF THE CENTER.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE
AROUND NOON TODAY.

FOR A GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF THIS LOCAL STATEMENT...PLEASE GO TO
OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO AND CLICK ON THE GRAPHICAL
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ICON.

$$

PFOST

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