[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KMFL 241010
HLSMFL
AMZ630-650-651-670-671-FLZ068-072-074-241615-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
610 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2005

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION FOR PERSONS IN THE METRO AREAS OF
MIAMI-DADE...BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
AT 5 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR
METROPOLITAN PALM BEACH...BROWARD...AND MIAMI DADE COUNTIES. AN
INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUE FOR INTERIOR SOUTH
FLORIDA...INCLUDING AREAS AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE...LATER THIS
MORNING. A FLOOD OUTLOOK HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 AM EDT...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NUMBER 12 WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.0
NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.4 WEST OR ABOUT 270 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
MIAMI. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY IN SQUALLS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE
DEPRESSION COULD BECOME TROPICAL STORM KATRINA LATER TODAY.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
TO 48 HOURS IN THE WATCH AREA. RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
SHOULD REVISE THEIR PREPAREDNESS PLANS AND BE READY TO TAKE ANY
PROPER ACTIONS IN CASE THE WATCH IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING LATER
TODAY.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
AT THIS TIME...STORM SURGE VALUES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. HOWEVER...IF
THE STORM INTENSIFIES FURTHER THAN FORECAST...THIS THREAT WILL
INCREASE. AS THE STORM APPROACHES THE COAST...ADDITIONAL DETAILS
WILL BE PROVIDED AS NEW FORECAST DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE.

...WIND IMPACTS...
THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE AS A TROPICAL STORM ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BEGIN MOVING ASHORE THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
INTO FRIDAY. THESE WINDS COULD CAUSE TREE LIMBS TO BLOW DOWN OR TREES
TO UPROOT CAUSING POWER OUTAGES. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
ON THE FORECAST TRACK AND PARTICULARLY INTENSITY AT THIS TIME. ANY
CHANGE IN ANY OF THESE PARAMETERS COULD CHANGE THE EXPECTED OUTCOME
FOR THE BETTER OR THE WORST DEPENDING ON THE SITUATION.
THEREFORE..RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION REGARDING THIS SYSTEM.

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK...INTENSITY...AND
SIZE OF THE STORM...AND THE LATEST FORECAST DATA...THE ACTUAL
PROBABILITY OF EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...FROM WEST PALM BEACH TO MIAMI...AT THIS
TIME IS AROUND 50%.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...
WINDS IN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST
WILL BE INCREASING LATER TONIGHT AND WILL LIKELY REACH TROPICAL STORM
FORCE THURSDAY. AS WINDS BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE...
SEAS WILL BUILD...ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM...AND SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. INCREASING WAVES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
WILL MEAN A HIGHER DANGER OF RIP CURRENTS BEGINNING ON THURSDAY.

...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS...
GIVEN THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CENTER
OF THE STORM WILL BE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR
ALMOST 24 HOURS FROM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. RAIN CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO BE FELT ACROSS THE AREA WELL
AHEAD OF THE LANDFALL AND WELL AFTER THE CENTER EXITS THE
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST. DUE TO THIS FORECASTED SLOW MOVEMENT...
FLOODING RAINS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA AND A FLOOD
OUTLOOK HAS BEEN ISSUED. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS ON THURSDAY WITH BANDS OF HEAVY
RAIN AND SQUALLS AFFECTING SOUTHEAST FLORIDA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
BEFORE DECREASING ON SUNDAY. PERSONS IN HIGHLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS ARE
URGED TO HAVE A PLAN TO PROTECT PROPERTY FROM RISING FLOOD WATERS. A
FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATER
TODAY.

...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES OCCURRING IN THE OUTER
RAINBANDS BEGINNING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY
SATURDAY...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST
OFFICE AROUND NOON TODAY.

FOR A GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF THIS LOCAL STATEMENT...PLEASE GO TO
OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO AND CLICK ON THE GRAPHICAL
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ICON.

$$

RADER/SANTOS

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