[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 240005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE IS CENTERED NEAR 23.2N
75.5W...OR ABOUT 175 MILES... 280 KM... SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU AT
23/2100 UTC MOVING NW AT 7 KT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS
30 KT GUSTS TO 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007
MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS
MIATCPAT1/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN
75W-79W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 21N-25N
BETWEEN 73W-75W.

1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED ABOUT 780 NM W OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS NEAR 17N39W...ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE S OF 23N ALONG 39W
MOVING W 10-15 KT. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE WELL E OF THE
CENTER DUE TO UPPER LEVEL SHEAR. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN
33W-37W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W S OF 17N MOVING W 10 KT.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR TROPICAL WAVE/LOW ALONG 39W.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLAND IS ALONG 62W S OF 20N
MOVING W 15 KT.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-20N
BETWEEN 60W-64W.

W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W/89W S OF 21N MOVING W 15
KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 88W-91W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND
HONDURAS FROM 9N-16N BETWEEN 84W-89W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 9N22W 17N39W 9N50W 10N60W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 44W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC A WEAK 1012 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 25N94W.  A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
SEE ABOVE.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 90W-92W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER FLORIDA FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN
81W-86W...AND FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 81W-84W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A STRONG ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER S
MISSISSIPPI NEAR 30N89W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF N OF
23N.  A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 20N94W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE
CENTER.  EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH TO BE STATIONARY OVER THE W
GULF AND THE E GULF E OF 90W TO HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF
CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN...
IN ADDITION TO THE TROPICAL WAVES A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER
HISPANIOLA FROM 21N70W TO 12N70W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 67W-71W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 12N82W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 180 NM OF
THE CENTER.  WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVER S THE REMAINDER OF
THE SEA.  EXPECT ALL SURFACE FEATURES TO MOVE W AT 15 KT FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEST ATLANTIC...
T.D. TWELVE IS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 26N76W MOVING W.  THIS FEATURE IS
PRODUCING SOME SHEAR OVER THE T.D. HOWEVER IT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE T.D. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

EAST/CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
1033 MB HIGH IS CENTERED W OF THE AZORES NEAR 39N35W.  AS A
RESULT...WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC
N OF 20N AND E OF 60W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N50W 24N64W.  ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS FURTHER E AT 23N47W.  A SMALL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION NEAR 18N38W IS PRODUCING SHEAR OVER THE LOW AND
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 17N39W.  A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED NEAR 31N21W.  A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER
W AFRICA NEAR 18N5W.

$$
FORMOSA


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