[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231808
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOSE CENTERED INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR 19.7N
98.1W...OR 60 NM ENE OF MEXICO CITY...AT 23/1500 UTC MOVING W AT
8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT GUSTS TO 35 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH JOSE IS N OF THE
CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 20N-23N
BETWEEN 96W-100W. JOSE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN EVEN FURTHER AS IT
MOVES INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MEXICO. HOWEVER IT WILL
STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OVER PARTS OF
S/CENTRAL MEXICO.

SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N71W SW TO 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR
25N74W THEN IN THE THE NW CARIBBEAN TO CENTRAL JAMAICA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE MAINLY E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM
20N TO 25N BETWEEN 69W AND 75W. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED BENEATH A
MID/UPPER LOW NEAR 23N79W WHICH IS ALSO MOVING TO THE WNW ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED ABOUT 650 NM W OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS NEAR 17N36W...ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE S OF 23N ALONG 36W
MOVING W 10-15 KT. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE CONFINED TO THE E
SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW...WITH DRY MORE STABLE AIR TO THE E OF THE
LOW. MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 32W
AND 36W. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AND THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS WARM WATERS...SO THERE IS  THE
POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS S OF 18N ALONG 21W MOVING W 10 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE EARLIER
HAS DISSIPATED.

SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR TROPICAL WAVE/LOW ALONG 36W.

TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLAND IS S OF 20N ALONG
60W MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM
14N-18N BETWEEN 60W-62W.

W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE S OF 21N ALONG 87W S OF 21N MOVING W
15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED WITH THE WAVE.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 10N20W 17N35W 8N49W 10N60W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN
42W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED  OVER S ALABAMA/
MISSISSIPPI COASTLINE WHICH IS PRODUCING 40-45 KT ELY FLOW IN
THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE GULF N OF 24N. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG THE LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI COASTAL WATERS
N OF 28N BETWEEN 88W-91W. WEAK SURFACE HIGH...1014 MB...IS
CENTERED NEAR 24N90W. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE CARIBBEAN NW ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 13N80W WITH MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE CIRCULATION NW TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE S OF 12M BETWEEN 75W
AND 77W AND ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA. WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM WESTERN CUBA TO HAITI. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 10N66W TO PUERTO RICO. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO
12N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS.

WEST ATLANTIC...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS OFF THE SE U.S. COAST ALONG 32N/33N W
OF 72W. CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS JUST N OF THE S BAHAMAS NEAR 23N79W
AND IS DESCRIBED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION.
FEATURES.

EAST/CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N50W SW TO 27N59W.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N39W TO ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION NEAR 23N42W THEN TO 18N43W. CUT-OFF MID/UPPER LOW IS
CENTERED ABOUT 250 NM WNW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 30N21W.

$$
DGS

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net