[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 231433
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOSE IS CENTERED INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR
19.6N 97.7W...OR 78 NM E OF MEXICO CITY...AT 23/1200 UTC MOVING
W AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH JOSE IS N OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 20.5N-23N W OF 96W TO INLAND
OVER MEXICO. JOSE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES OVER
LAND BUT WILL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING
OVER PARTS OF S/CENTRAL MEXICO.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N77W NE OVER E CUBA ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO 27N72W MOVING NW 5-10 KT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
IS NOT PARTICULARLY SHARP...AND THE SYSTEM IS COLLOCATED BENEATH
A MID/UPPER LOW LOCATED NEAR 25N73W WHICH ALSO HAPPENS TO BE
MOVING W TOWARDS THE BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE PRIMARILY W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS TO THE
COAST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA AND TWO LARGE AREAS SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...WITHIN 120
NM OF LINE FROM JAMAICA NEAR 18N76W TO 22N73W NEAR THE TURKS AND
CAICOS...AND A SECOND AREA WITHIN 120 NM NM OF LINE FROM 27N72W
TO THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 19N69W. DRY AIR
ALOFT IS BEING DRAWN INTO THE UPPER LOW FROM A RIDGE TO THE
N...THUS LIMITING CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. WITH THE
LOW SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED ABOUT 575 NM W OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS NEAR 17N35W...ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 34W/35W S OF
23N MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD LOW LEVEL CENTER ELONGATED MORE E/W
THAN EARLIER. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE NOW IN ALL BUT
THE W QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 32W-36W WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
15N FROM 36W-41W. THE LOW CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED IN A LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT AND IS OVER WATERS WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...SO TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HRS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W S OF 18N MOVING W 10 KT. A MID
LEVEL ROTATION APPEARS JUST TO THE W OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N E OF 23W TO THE WAVE AXIS.

SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR TROPICAL WAVE/LOW ALONG 34W/35W.

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 140 NM E OF BARBADOS IS ALONG
58W/59W S OF 19N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS
BETTER DEFINED THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 14N-19N.

W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W S OF 21N MOVING W
15-20 KT. WEAK INVERTED-V SATELLITE SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED FROM
14N-19N. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 19N W OF THE WAVE AXIS TO INLAND OVER
HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND BELIZE.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N15W 11N18W 17N31W...THEN ALONG
13N36W 11N48W 13N57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
5N13N BETWEEN 38W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED INLAND OVER S ALABAMA/
MISSISSIPPI BORDER WHICH IS PRODUCING MOSTLY EASTERLY FLOW IN
THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE GULF N OF 24N. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES INTO
THE N GULF N OF 27N...S OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
THROUGH SE GEORGIA...PENSACOLA FLORIDA...TO NEW ORLEANS
LOUISIANA. SIMILAR ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO MOVE W INTO THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA DUE TO THE ACTIVITY OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE SURFACE
TROUGH THERE. FARTHER S...TROPICAL STORM JOSE OVER THE W BAY OF
CAMPECHE/MEXICO IS JUST TO THE W OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH
EXTENDS FROM A MID/UPPER LOW IN THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE
YUCATAN TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE PRODUCING SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 21N. MOISTURE VALUES
WILL REMAIN HIGH OVER THE GULF FOR MOST OF THE WEEK AND COULD
SUPPORT SCATTERED AREAS OF CONVECTION ESPECIALLY OVER THE N AND
E GULF AND NEAR THE REMNANTS OF T.S. JOSE.

CARIBBEAN...
AN INVERTED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A UPPER LOW OVER
THE S CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N78W NW TO A SECOND WEAK LOW NEAR 17N86W
TO ACROSS THE YUCATAN. A WEAK UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER E CUBA
AND IS DRAGGING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SW ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND E
CUBA FROM THE CONVECTION OVER THE BAHAMAS. FARTHER E...A
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED JUST OFF THE COAST OF VENEZUELA
E OF THE ABC ISLANDS NEAR 12N67W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING N TO
OVER PUERTO RICO. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
NEAR GRENADINES NW TO THE MONA PASSAGE AND IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N-18N OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES TO 70W. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH TODAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES OVER THE
ISLANDS LATER TODAY...BUT THEN WILL SHIFT W AND BE IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATER IN THE WEEK.

WEST ATLANTIC...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM S GEORGIA NE BEYOND 33N72W WITH
BROAD NE/E FLOW EXTENDING FROM N OF THE BAHAMAS ACROSS FLORIDA.
A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS JUST N OF THE S BAHAMAS NEAR 25N73W
MOVING WESTWARD AND IS GENERATING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING FROM OVER
THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND OVER S FLORIDA S
OF 28N INTO THE SE GULF. THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING WNW OVER FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE EXPECTED
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW...AS DESCRIBED ABOVE IN SPECIAL
FEATURES.

EAST/CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC WATERS N OF 25N W OF
70W WITH MOSTLY DRY AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS. A CUT-OFF MID/
UPPER LOW LOCATED N OF THE AREA NEAR 35N50W IS PULLING SOME
MOISTURE S TO 30N AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION N OF 30N BETWEEN 50W-53W. BROAD...IRREGULAR SHAPED
UPPER HIGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC ROUGHLY CENTERED NEAR 24N43W.
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF MAURITANIA W ALONG 18N
E OF 32W. A SECOND CUT-OFF MID/UPPER LOW IS CENTERED ABOUT 200
NM WNW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 29N21W WITH FLOW N OF 25N E OF
29W. WITH THE DRY AIR ALOFT...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS OR
CONVECTION IS BEING GENERATED.

$$
WALLACE




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