[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221801
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
T.D. ELEVEN HAS DEVELOPED IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 19.5N
95.4W AT 22/1800 UTC OR ABOUT 50 MILES ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MOVING W 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 25 KT GUST TO 35 KT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION WITH T.D. ELEVEN IS S OF 22N E OF 92W.

1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 16N31W
ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 31W THAT EXTENDS S OF 22N AND IS
MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE LOW HAS BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
WITH MODERATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 28W
AND 32W. TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.

SURFACE TROUGH N OF HISPANIOLA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOW SOME SIGNS OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
MAY BE DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 70W AND 74W
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO
25N BETWEEN 65W AND 76W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR TROPICAL WAVE/LOW ALONG 31W.

WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 55W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
NO DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 77W/78 S OF 20N MOVING W
10-15 KT. N DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 18N31W THEN ALONG 13N33W
12N45W 11N61W. LARGE CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION OFF AFRICA FROM 12N-18N E OF 21W TO THE COAST.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO S INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. A LARGE UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S MISSISSIPPI WITH
A LARGE AREA OF EASTERLIES FLOWING ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE GULF N
OF 24N. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE MOVING W ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE
N COAST OF TEXAS. SCATTERED TSTMS HAS DEVELOPED OFF THE W COAST
OF FLORIDA FROM THE LOWER KEYS TO TAMPA BAY.

CARIBBEAN...
UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN
THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N77W NW TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THAT
SPARKED SCATTERED CONVECTION S OF 13N W OF 79W. ELSEWHERE...AN
UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED SE OF CUBA AND IS REINFORCING DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG THE LESSER ANTILLES. AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH IS
MOVING INTO THE E CARIBBEAN FROM AN UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE COAST
OF VENEZUELA NEAR 12N64W TO 20N63W.

WEST ATLANTIC...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NE OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA/SOUTH
CAROLINA ENE TO BEYOND BERMUDA AND IS PRODUCING MODERATE NE FLOW
OVER THE W ATLC AND ACROSS THE N BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA. AN UPPER
LOW LOCATED BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND BERMUDA NEAR 26N67W. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE IS HELPING TO PRODUCE THE SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH MENTIONED IN SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION.

EAST/CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
CUT-OFF MID/UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE N BOUNDARY OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 33N49W AND IS NEAR STATIONARY. THE LOW IS
PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 46W-50W. BROAD
MID/UPPER RIDGE SEPARATES THE UPPER LOW WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
LEVEL LOW TO THE E. WITH RIDGE AXIS FROM 15N43W TO 32N37W.
AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM 16N TO 30N BETWEEN
30W AND 40W. A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N23N
WITH TROUGH S TO 19N26W.

$$
DGS

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