[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 221534
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
NOON EDT MON AUG 22 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY...MEXICAN RADAR DATA...AND QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITIES
INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
HAS ORGANIZED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
25 KT IS BASED ON QUIKSCAT OBSERVATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION AND THE PRESUMPTION THAT THE CORE CIRCULATION WITHIN THE
CONVECTION IS STILL BROAD.   UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS VERY STRONG AND
THE WATER IS WARM...HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE VERY LONG
OVER THE WATER TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS.
ALTHOUGH NEITHER THE SHIPS NOR GFDL INTENSITY GUIDANCE MAKES THIS
SYSTEM A TROPICAL STORM...I PREFER TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION IN
FORECASTING THE DEPRESSION TO REACH STORM STRENGTH.  AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL PROVIDE BETTER INFORMATION ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/7.  THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A TRACK JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST
UNTIL LANDFALL.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      22/1600Z 19.5N  95.0W    25 KT
 12HR VT     23/0000Z 19.7N  96.0W    35 KT
 24HR VT     23/1200Z 19.9N  97.6W    25 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     24/0000Z...DISSIPATED


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