[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221042
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR
15N27.5W...ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 27W/28W THAT EXTENDS S OF
21N AND IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT VARIOUS LEVELS MAKING THE
EXACT LOW LEVEL CENTER A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. THE
CONVECTIVE INTENSITY IS NOT AS INTENSE AS EARLIER WITH CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 13N-16N
BETWEEN 27W-32W. GIVEN THE LARGE CIRCULATION AND LOW PRESSURE
NEAR THE CENTER...TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR TROPICAL WAVE/LOW ALONG 27W/28W.

WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 53W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WEAK
WAVE WITH AN EXTREMELY POOR SIGNATURE AND IS ONLY ASSOCIATED
WITH A SLIGHT CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD. NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 76W S OF 20N MOVING W
10-15 KT. WITH THE EXTREMELY CLEAR WEATHER OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS OBSERVED NEAR THE WAVE
AXIS S OF 15N. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 18N25W...THEN ALONG 12N30W
12N40W 12N35W 10N46W 13N60W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION ARE OFF AFRICA FROM 13N-18N E OF 20W TO THE
COAST. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 13W-20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
PRIMARY FOCUS THIS MORNING IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S
MEXICO WITH A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE COAST NEAR
19N93W MOVING WNW. THE LOW IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED THIS
SYSTEM WITH AN INCREASE IN THE AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE S OF 21.5N FROM 91W-97W WITH SIMILAR CONVECTION RIDING
UP THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM 21N-24W. THE SURFACE LOW IS BENEATH
AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W CARIBBEAN
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO OVER CENTRAL MEXICO...THUS
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW
REMAINS IN THE GULF. ELSEWHERE...A LARGE UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER S MISSISSIPPI WITH A LARGE AREA OF EASTERLIES FLOWING
ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE GULF N OF 23N. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING W ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 23N-30N
BETWEEN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE TEXAS/MEXICO COAST.

CARIBBEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
FROM NEAR 20N84W ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THAT SPARKED
CONVECTION EARLIER THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER E CUBA AND IS REINFORCING DEEP EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...THIS FLOW IS ABNORMALLY
DRY SO THERE IS LITTLE IF ANY IN THE WAY OF TRADE SHOWERS
BETWEEN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND 70W S OF 17N. HOWEVER...
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM OVER
THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 18N-22N BETWEEN
70W-75W INCLUDING FAR E CUBA. SOME OF THE DRY AIR IS BEING
DRAGGED S BY ANOTHER UPPER LOW/TROUGH CENTERED ALONG THE
COLOMBIAN COAST NEAR 12N75W W TO 14N82W...AND ALL OF THE UPPER
MOISTURE IS BEING LIMITED TO S OF 10N WHERE THE FLOW IS
WESTERLY. ELSEWHERE...AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING INTO
THE E CARIBBEAN FROM AN UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE COAST OF
VENEZUELA NEAR 12N64W TO 20N63W AND IS COLLOCATED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM JUST SW OF BARBADOS NEAR 12N60W ACROSS THE
CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES TO 23N64W. THESE FEATURES ARE PRODUCING
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF
LINE 14.5N60W-19N62W INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM MARTINIQUE TO
ANGUILLA.

WEST ATLANTIC...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NE OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA/SOUTH
CAROLINA ENE TO BEYOND BERMUDA AND IS PRODUCING MODERATE NE FLOW
OVER THE W ATLC AND ACROSS THE N BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA. THIS
FLOW LIES ON THE W SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW LOCATED BETWEEN PUERTO
RICO AND BERMUDA NEAR 26N67W...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS
TO THE S BAHAMA ISLANDS. STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE S OF THE TROUGH
IS HELPING TO PRODUCE THE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF
25N TO OVER HISPANIOLA AND CUBA W OF 67W INTO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AND WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE 25N65W TO THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 19N62W.

EAST/CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
A CUT-OFF MID/UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE N BOUNDARY OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 321N48W AND IS NEAR STATIONARY. THE LOW IS
PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 26N BETWEEN 46W-50W. BROAD
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS IN THE S/CENTRAL ATLC ROUGHLY CENTERED
NEAR 22N40W AND EXTENDS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW S TO NEAR 15N WITH A
SHARP RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N TO NEAR 32N39W AND IS WEDGED
BETWEEN TWO UPPER LOWS. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BEING
PARTICULARLY DRY OVER THE CNTRL ATLC...WITH THE AREA OF STRONG
SUBSIDENCE LOCATED WITHIN 250 NM OF A LINE FROM 30N37W TO 24N43W
THEN NARROWING TO WITHIN 150 NM TO 10N52W WITH THE MOST ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIMITED SE OF THE HIGH. ANOTHER NEAR
STATIONARY MID/UPPER LOW IS LOCATED JUST WNW OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS NEAR 30N22W AND IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SHOWERS ACTIVITY.

$$
WALLACE



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