[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201051
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT AUG 20 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16W S OF 23N MOVING W 5-10 KT.
A 1009 MB LOW IS ON THE WAVE AXIS AT 18N16W.  BAMAKO UPPER LEVEL
SOUNDING SHOWS DEFINITE WAVE PASSAGE...WHILE DAKAR UPPER LEVEL
SOUNDING SHOWS AN IMMINENTLY APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE.  LARGE
CLOUD AREA WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION IS ALSO ALONG THE W AFRICAN
COAST.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-15N
BETWEEN 15W-21W.

CENTRAL ATLC WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 21N MOVING W 15 KT.  THIS IS
A RATHER LARGE WAVE WITH A CIRCULATION THAT ENCOMPASSES THE
ATLANTIC S OF 21N BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDES AND 48W.  IN
ADDITION...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WAS SPAWNED FROM THE TROPICAL
WAVE AND IS NOW ALONG 31W BETWEEN 12N-21N.  FOR NOW THE WAVE
REMAINS WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION PROBABLY IN PART TO VERY
DRY AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR PICTURES.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ALONG 65W S OF 15N
MOVING W 10-15 KT.  THE WAVE IS ENHANCING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 63W-70W.

W CARIBBEAN WAVE IS ALONG 90W/91W S OF 20N MOVING W 15 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DECENT CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE LOW
CLOUDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM RADIUS OF 16N88W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS
FROM 14W-22W BETWEEN 92W-98W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N17W 9N30W 9N50W 12N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 9N-16N E OF 20W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN
21W-40W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N
BETWEEN 43W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG
29N.  LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE
GULF.  CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE S
OF 22N BETWEEN 92W-98W DUE TO THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS... LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
OVER N GEORGIA AT 33N83W.  E TO SE UPPER LEVEL WINDS COVERS THE
ENTIRE GULF.  EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE TO REMAIN STATIONARY FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND N FLORIDA ARE AREAS
WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER BOTH ENDS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WHILE A
1008 MB LOW IS OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N75W.  MODERATE TRADES ARE
NOTED.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COAST OF E HONDURAS FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 82W-85W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NEAR JAMAICA FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN
82W-86W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 61W-65W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER SURINAME PRODUCING
NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W.  THE
REMAINDER OF THE SEA HAS NE-E UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH CONSIDERABLE
MOISTURE W OF 80W.  EXPECT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY W IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1023 MB HIGH IS SE OF BERMUDA NEAR 30N61W.  A SURFACE
TROUGH... REMNANTS OF T.D. TEN IS N OF HISPANIOLA FROM 25N70W TO
19N70W.  COMPUTER MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO
REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO STEER THE TROUGH ON A GENERAL WNW TRACK
TOWARD THE FLORIDA STRAITS.  A FEW MODELS ALSO HINT AT
REDEVELOPMENT BUT THIS DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY.  A VERY LARGE 1034
MB HIGH IS NE OF THE AZORES NEAR 43N20W WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING SW TO 34N45W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 25N AND E OF
45W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERED OVER THE SE USA IS PRODUCING  DRY NE FLOW W OF 70W N OF
25.  HOWEVER AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE TO 28N62W HERALDING AN INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE.  A
SMALL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS S OF THE TROUGH NEAR 22N64W.
FARTHER E... A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 27N44W AND IS
DRIFTING WEST WITH TROUGH AXIS SSW TO 20N45W.  THE GFS SUGGEST
THE FEATURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY W OR NW DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
WITH ONLY A SMALL INTRUSION INTO THE DEEP TROPICS S OF 20N.
VERY DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUES E OF THE CIRCULATION N OF 15N
BETWEEN 30W-40W.  OTHERWISE IN THE AREA... AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS NEAR 20N20W WITH RIDGE AXIS WSW TO 15N40W
12N50W.  S OF THE RIDGE AXIS... FAIRLY MOIST AIR IS PRESENT
ALOFT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE DRYING N OF THE AXIS.

$$
FORMOSA



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