[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200610
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT AUG 20 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS INTRODUCED ALONG 15W S OF 23N MOVING W 5-10
KT.  A 1010 MB LOW IS ON THE WAVE AXIS AT 19N15W.  BAMAKO UPPER
LEVEL SOUNDING SHOW DEFINITE WAVE PASSAGE...WHILE DAKAR UPPER
LEVEL SOUNDING SHOWS AN IMMINENTLY APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE.
LARGE CLOUD AREA WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION IS ALSO ALONG THE W
AFRICAN COAST.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
13N-15N BETWEEN 15W-18W...AND FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 13W-18W.

CENTRAL ATLC WAVE IS ALONG 38W S OF 21N MOVING W 15 KT.  THIS IS
A RATHER LARGE WAVE WITH A CIRCULATION THAT ENCOMPASSES THE
ATLANTIC S OF 21N BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDES AND 45W.  IN
ADDITION...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WAS SPAWNED FROM THE TROPICAL
WAVE AND IS NOW ALONG 30W BETWEEN 12N-21N WITH A LOW/MID
ROTATION NOTED AT THE N END OF THE TROUGH.  FOR NOW THE WAVE
REMAINS WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION PROBABLY IN PART TO VERY
DRY AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR PICTURES.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 63W S OF 15N
MOVING W 10-15 KT.  THE WAVE IS ENHANCING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND FEW TSTMS S OF 14N E OF 65W IN THE CARIBBEAN.  THIS
MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE THE CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE E CARIBBEAN
WATER THROUGH TOMORROW.

W CARIBBEAN WAVE IS ALONG 89W/90W S OF 20N MOVING W 15 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DECENT CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE LOW
CLOUDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 91W-97W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 15N17W 9N30W 9N50W 12N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 9N-16N E OF 20W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN
20W-23W...AND FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 27W-32W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 32W-40W...AND FROM
7N-9N BETWEEN 43W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
1018 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N86W.  LIGHT
TO MODERATE EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE GULF.
CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE DUE TO
THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... LARGE
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER N GEORGIA AT 33N83W.
E TO SE UPPER LEVEL WINDS COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF.  EXPECT THE
SURFACE HIGH TO REMAIN STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND N FLORIDA ARE AREAS WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL
OF CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER BOTH ENDS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WHILE A
1008 MB LOW IS OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N75W.  MODERATE TRADES ARE
NOTED.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COAST OF E HONDURAS FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 82W-85W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NEAR JAMAICA FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN
75W-80W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 62W-64W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER SURINAME PRODUCING
NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W.  THE
REMAINDER OF THE SEA HAS NE-E UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH CONSIDERABLE
MOISTURE W OF 80W.  EXPECT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY W IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1023 MB HIGH IS SE OF BERMUDA NEAR 30N60W.  A SURFACE
TROUGH... REMNANTS OF T.D. TEN IS N OF HISPANIOLA FROM 23N69W TO
18N68W.  COMPUTER MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO
REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO STEER THE TROUGH ON A GENERAL WNW TRACK
TOWARD THE FLORIDA STRAITS.  A FEW MODELS ALSO HINT AT
REDEVELOPMENT BUT THIS DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY.  A VERY LARGE 1035
MB HIGH IS NE OF THE AZORES NEAR 43N20W WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING SW TO 31N46W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 25N AND E OF
45W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERED OVER THE SE USA IS PRODUCING  DRY NE FLOW W OF 70W N OF
25.  HOWEVER AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE TO 28N62W HERALDING AN INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE.  A
SMALL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS S OF THE TROUGH NEAR 22N64W.
FARTHER E... A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 27N44W AND IS
DRIFTING WEST WITH TROUGH AXIS SSW TO 20N45W.  THE GFS SUGGEST
THE FEATURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY W OR NW DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
WITH ONLY A SMALL INTRUSION INTO THE DEEP TROPICS S OF 20N.
VERY DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUES E OF THE CIRCULATION N OF 15N
BETWEEN 30W-40W.  OTHERWISE IN THE AREA... AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS NEAR 20N20W WITH RIDGE AXIS WSW TO 15N40W
12N50W.  S OF THE RIDGE AXIS... FAIRLY MOIST AIR IS PRESENT
ALOFT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE DRYING N OF THE AXIS.

$$
FORMOSA


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