[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 191805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 31W/32W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING WEST 10 TO
15 KT. NO SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE DIRECTLY RELATED TO THIS
WAVE. ITCZ PRECIPITATION GOES FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 24W AND
35W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE WAS ALONG 60W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING INTO THE AREA OF
A PRE-EXISTING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH. IT STILL
IS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH...THE REMNANT OF T.D. TEN.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ABOUND FROM 10N
TO 20N BETWEEN 57W AND 73W. IT IS PROBABLE THAT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF 17N IS MORE RELATED TO THE WAVE.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE 86W/87W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA OF
A PRE-EXISTING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 17N87W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH HAS INHABITED THE AREA FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SOME
PART OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE
LAST THREE DAYS AT LEAST. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS STRETCH FROM
10N TO 20N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ 13N16W 11N30W 10N33W 7N50W 8N57W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 23W AND 45W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 16W AND 18W...AND FROM
FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 15W AND 17W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER HAS MOVED
ASHORE...MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SOUTHWEST OF SAN
ANTONIO TEXAS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF WATERS...ORIGINATING IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN...PASSING OVER FLORIDA...
AND GOING TO AT LEAST 94W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS
IN THIS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...EAST OF 94W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA FROM 20N TO 23N
BETWEEN 94W AND 98W...AT THE TAIL END OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW
TOWARD THE SOUTH TEXAS CYCLONIC CENTER.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS SEEN IN THE EASTERN
PART OF THE AREA...WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND IT BETWEEN 60W
AND 65W. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE/CUBA AREA TO THE 17N87W
CYCLONIC CENTER IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 73W AND 80W IN THE
MIDDLE OF THESE TWO AREAS OF CYCLONIC FLOW.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

ONE ATLANTIC SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TEN...WAS ALONG 24N62W 19N65W JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE/LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N TO 23N BETWEEN 58W AND 63W. SIMILAR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE FOUND FROM 19N TO 25N BETWEEN
63W AND 68W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS SOUTH OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL ATLANTIC TROUGH. SOME OF THESE AREAS ARE IN THE DISSIPATING
STAGES WHILE OTHERS ARE DEVELOPING. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH WAS
ALONG 28N66W 25N70W ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO CUBA NEAR
20N75W. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N
TO 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...AND FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 70W AND
74W. THIS IS A TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN IN THIS GENERAL VICINITY
FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONNECTS
ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 28N43W TO 23N52W...TO
28N57W...TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 27N63W TO 27N68W
TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W...ACROSS CUBA INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N80W TO A THIRD CYCLONIC
CENTER NEAR 17N87W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR WAS WITHIN
700 NM EAST TO SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH OF THIS TROUGH EAST OF 58W.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EAST OF 23W OVER
INTERIOR AFRICA.

$$
MT


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