[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 180537
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0415 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STROM IRENE IS CENTERED NEAR 38.8N 54.5W AT 18/0300 UTC
MOVING ENE AT 17 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 75 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB.
SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. IRENE HAS BEGUN TO
ACCELERATE OFF TO THE NE AS IT IS BEING PICKED UP BY THE STRONG
WESTERLIES AND WILL ABSORBED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS BY THE
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONVECTION IS TO THE NE OF THE LOW
LEVEL CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 38N-43N BETWEEN 49W-53W.

A 1011 MB LOW...REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN...IS CENTERED
NEAR 17N58W MOVING WNW 5-10 KT. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
REGENERATE THE LOW HAS NOT REDEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM.
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR REDEVELOPMENT...BUT
THAT COULD CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE SYSTEM PASSES TO
THE NE OF THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 45/60 NM OF 58W FROM 17.5N-19.5N.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA IS ALONG 20W/21W S OF 23N
WITH A 1011 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 16N MOVING W 5-10 KT.
THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION BUT WITH THE ABUNDANT OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS COULD
RECEIVE SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W S OF 19N MOVING
W 10 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MARK THE LEADING EDGE OF AN
AFRICAN DUST SURGE. AS SUCH...THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE.

W CARIBBEAN/SE GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG ALONG
91W/92W S OF 24N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS BENEATH STRONG N
FLOW RESULTING FROM AN UPPER HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO.
THEREFORE... ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS IN THE E PACIFIC
REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA ARE E OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 21N.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N22W 9N33W 10N47W 9N62W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE
AXIS FROM 28W-36W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT
THE AREA WITHIN 200 NM OF THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER HIGH IS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO
PRODUCING NW TO N UPPER FLOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE N/CENTRAL GULF IS CENTERED NEAR NEAR 28N91W WITH A
TROUGH WITH CYCLONIC FLOW N OF 24N BETWEEN 85W-95W. A SECOND
UPPER LOW IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WITH TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING INTO THE NW GULF NEAR 27N95W. DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE
FAR E GULF IS AIDING THE GENERATION OF LATE EVENING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MOVING OFF THE COAST
FROM 25N-29N E OF 84W. ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
ABUNDANT...ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE
SW GULF S OF 25N W OF 90W. OVERALL THE N GULF IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO POOL OVER THE S GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

CARIBBEAN...
A LARGE MID/UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN OFF THE
COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 14N82W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING ENE TO OVER HISPANIOLA. THE UPPER LOW IS PULLING NE
FLOW OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SOMEWHAT DRY UPPER AIR AS WELL. UPPER
LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE IS POOLING OVER THE S CARIBBEAN SE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS GENERATING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WITH TWO
AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N W OF 79W TO INLAND OVER
PANAMA/COSTA RICA AND S OF HISPANIOLA FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN
71W-75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT MOST OF
THE CARIBBEAN WITH TWO AREAS OF HIGHER CONCENTRATION...S OF 15N
W OF 77W AND OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES FROM PUERTO RICO TO E
CUBA E OF 80W. THE E CARIBBEAN TO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ARE
UNDER W UPPER FLOW FROM AN UPPER LOW N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR
23N66W. DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY TRADES
INCREASING ON SAT.

ATLANTIC...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SE UNITED STATES WITH
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE W ATLC FROM THE GEORGIA COAST
TO NEAR 29N70W. THE RIDGE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR MOSTLY SUBSIDENCE
CONDITIONS SO THERE ARE NO SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NOTED N OF 24N
W OF 67W. THE NEAR STATIONARY UPPER LOW HAS MOVED N OUT OF THE
REGION WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW THROUGH 32N41W TO A
SECOND UPPER LOW N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 23N66W TO OVER THE TURKS
AND CAICOS. TO THE W...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N56W SW
TO 26N62W. BROAD SWATH OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 32N52W ALONG
25N63W TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES NEAR HISPANIOLA. THE E ATLC
IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER HIGH NEAR 24N37W WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM JUST W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS SW TO 14N50W. A
SURGE OF AFRICAN DUST IS LOCATED BENEATH THIS RIDGE AND EXTENDS
GENERALLY FROM 30W-50W. TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS ALONG THE
AFRICAN COAST AS THE TROPICAL WAVE/LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS.

$$
WALLACE


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