[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 180226
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  54
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2005

THE ASSESSMENT OF THE CURRENT MOTION...INTENSITY...AND SIZE OF IRENE
WAS GREATLY AIDED BY MICROWAVE AND SCATTEROMETER MEASUREMENTS THIS
EVENING.  A MICROWAVE PASS AT 2225Z INDICATED THAT IRENE HAS BEEN
MOVING AT 060/17...A LITTLE SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK...AS THE CENTER BEGINS TO DISENGAGE FROM THE STILL STRONG
CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THE QUIKSCAT PASS AT
2150Z SHOWED THAT PEAK WINDS WERE STILL ABOUT 60 KT...BUT THAT THE
WIND RADII NEEDED TO BE ADJUSTED INWARD.  IN PARTICULAR...THE
CIRCULATION IS SHRINKING IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AS A FRONTAL
ZONE APPROACHES.

THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE GENERAL FORECAST
THINKING...WHICH HAS IRENE ACCELERATING TO THE NORTHEAST AND
BECOMING ABSORBED WITHIN THE APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE.  HOWEVER...
THE 18Z MODEL GUIDANCE IN GENERAL HAS ALREADY TAKEN IRENE TOO
QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST...AND SO I HAVE ADJUSTED THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.  THE GFS SHOWS IRENE BECOMING ABSORBED WITHIN THE FRONTAL
ZONE IN ABOUT 12 HOURS...BUT GIVEN PRESENT TRENDS IT MAY TAKE JUST
A LITTLE LONGER FOR IRENE TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      18/0300Z 38.8N  54.5W    60 KT
 12HR VT     18/1200Z 41.9N  50.3W    55 KT
 24HR VT     19/0000Z 48.0N  44.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     19/1200Z...ABSORBED WITHIN EXTRATROPICAL LOW


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