[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 171803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS NEAR 37.1N 58.6W AT
17/1200 UTC OR ABOUT 720 MILES/1160 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE
65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 987 MB. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC OR MIATCPAT4/
WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS
MOVED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN U.S. COASTS AND IS
SWEEPING RAPIDLY TOWARD IRENE. THE TROUGH IS INTRODUCING STRONG
WESTERLY MIDDLE-TO-UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR ON IRENE. THE CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING UP...WITH DISSIPATING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY...FROM 35N TO 40N BETWEEN 51W AND 60W.

A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TEN...WAS NEAR 16N55W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 5 TO
10 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 52W AND 58W.
THIS LOW CENTER HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RE-DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WAS NEAR 22N62W TO ITS WEST. THIS
SURFACE LOW IS MOVING TOWARD AN ATLANTIC MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WHICH STRETCHES FROM 31N41W TO 27N52W TO 22N68W TOWARD
THE NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA/EASTERN HONDURAS BORDER. THE 24 HOUR
FORECAST POSITION PUTS THIS LOW CENTER IN THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS LOW CENTER SHOULD PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. RESIDENTS IN AND NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR CLOSELY THE
PROGRESS OF THIS FEATURE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

THE MOST RECENT TROPICAL WAVE WAS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA ALONG
18W/19W SOUTH OF 21N DRIFTING WESTWARD. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS ALONG THIS WAVE NEAR 16N. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 10N TO 20N
BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA AND 22W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE WAS ALONG 47W/48W SOUTH OF 19N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. THE DUST SEEMS TO SHOW UP THE BEST ON THE
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SOUTH OF 24N BETWEEN 27W AND THE WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W/89W SOUTH OF 24N MOVING WEST 10 TO
15 KT. THIS WAVE RUNS FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO CENTRAL AMERICA. THE WAVE IS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE WESTERN END OF THE ATLANTIC-TO-
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. IT IS NOT
EASY TO FIND ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHICH IS DIRECTLY RELATED
TO THIS WAVE.

THE LAST TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 98W/99W SOUTH OF 22N MOVING WEST
10 KT. THIS WAVE IS INLAND OVER MEXICO. NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ 14N22W 10N34W 10N44W 9N50W 9N65W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO
10N BETWEEN 28W AND 40W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TO
WEST CENTRAL MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO
THE SOUTH OF THIS TROUGH. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
TROUGH...IS BEING CARRIED INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE/LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STRETCH FROM THE EAST CENTRAL GULF WATERS TO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL GULF TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COASTAL
WATERS APPEAR TO BE DISSIPATING A BIT WITH SOME WARMING CLOUD
TOP TEMPERATURES. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE EXISTS IN THE OPEN
GULF WATERS. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM AN ATLANTIC 1017 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N75W TO SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA TO
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ONE BIG EAST-NORTHEAST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH RUNS
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH 22N68W TO THE EASTERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...TO JUST SOUTH OF JAMAICA TO THE EASTERN HONDURAS/
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA BORDER. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS ARE SOUTH OF 16N WEST OF 67W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OF COMPARATIVELY GREATER INTENSITY WERE OCCURRING FROM 11.5N TO
15.5N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W AROUND 17/1345 UTC. WARMING CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES AND DISSIPATING BUT POSSIBLY LINGERING PRECIPITATION
IS IN THIS AREA. THIS PRECIPITATION IS SOUTH OF AN AREA OF SOME
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE FOUND FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 75W AND 79W...
AND FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 81W AND THE COAST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...NEAR THE ITCZ.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THIS SURFACE LOW IS MOVING TOWARD AN ATLANTIC MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WHICH STRETCHES FROM 31N41W TO 27N52W TO 22N68W
TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA/EASTERN HONDURAS BORDER.A
SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM 34N53W TO 30N53W TO 26N60W TO THE
NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 19N70W. WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 68W AND 82W IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 68W AND 76W FROM
HISPANIOLA TO CUBA AND THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...ALONG THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
22N62W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE AROUND THIS CYCLONIC
CENTER FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 62W AND 66W. SURFACE 1017 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WAS NEAR 28N75W...FORECAST TO BE
QUASI-STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC COVERS THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE ATLANTIC-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EAST OF 24W OVER
INTERIOR AFRICA.

$$
MT


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