[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 171047
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE IRENE IS CENTERED NEAR 36.6N 60.1W...OR 682 NM SSW OF
CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND...AT 17/0900 UTC MOVING E AT 7 KT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB. SEE THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. THE SHEAR OVER IRENE HAS INCREASED SUCH THAT
THE OUTFLOW IS IMPEDED TO THE W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 35N-39N BETWEEN 56W-61W.

A 1011 MB LOW...PREVIOUSLY TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN...IS CENTERED
NEAR 16N55W MOVING W 5-10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF 56W FROM 16.5N-19N. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 51W-58W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA IS DRIFTING W SLOWLY AND
IS ALONG 19W S OF 22N WITH A 1009 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR
16N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE FROM 13.5N-18.5N BETWEEN 17W-21W WITH THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W S OF 18N MOVING
WSW 15 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MARK THE LEADING EDGE OF AN
AFRICAN DUST SURGE AND IS TILTED SLIGHTLY NW/SE DUE TO STRONGER
TRADES NEAR THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE.

W CARIBBEAN/SE GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG ALONG
87W/88W S OF 24N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS BENEATH STRONG N
FLOW RESULTING FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE YUCATAN. THEREFORE...
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS IN THE E PACIFIC REGION.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO ALONG 97W
S OF 22N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 22N E OF THE WAVE
AXIS WHILE THE DEEP CONVECTION IS IN THE E PACIFIC REGION.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N21W 9N31W 9N55W 12N62W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS
FROM 21W-24W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 250 S OF
THE AXIS FROM 25W-36W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE S OF 11N TO JUST INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA FROM 50W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE E GULF IS CENTERED NEAR NEAR 27N89W WITH A
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SW OVER MEXICO NEAR 24N98W. BROAD-SCALE
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING PULLED N AND E ON THE S SIDE OF
THE TROUGH AND SPREADING FROM MEXICO/BAY OF CAMPECHE TO ALONG
THE W COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVES
IS CURRENTLY BRUSHING BY THE AREA WITH ONE OVER THE W BAY OF
CAMPECHE...AND THE OTHER MOVING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AS
SUCH...SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING
FROM IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EXTENDING N OF THE THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA/CHANNEL THEN NE TO NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA. OVERALL THE N
GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO POOL OVER THE SW GULF FOR THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO AS THE TROPICAL WAVES MOVE BY.

CARIBBEAN...
A LARGE MID/UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
NEAR 15N75W S OF HAITI. THE LOW IS PULLING BROAD NE FLOW OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN...AND AS A RESULT IS PULLING A LARGE AREA OF
CIRRUS OUTFLOW FROM THE CONVECTION S OF 14N W OF 70W NE OVER THE
E CARIBBEAN. DRY AIR FARTHER N OVER THE W ATLC IS BEING DRAWN
ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE CIRCULATION OF THE LOW. ALTHOUGH
THE LOW IS CAUSING ISOLATED SHOWERS PRIMARILY ON ITS N
SIDE...THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN S OF 14N W OF 70W WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION FROM
72W-77W TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA WHERE THE UPPER FLOW IS
DIVERGING TO THE E AND SW. THE NE CARIBBEAN AND LEEWARD ISLANDS
ARE UNDER W UPPER FLOW FROM AN UPPER LOW N OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 21N62W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE E
CARIBBEAN. THE AREA WILL HAVE RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS
BEGINNING LATER TODAY AS DRIER AIR FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC MOVES
WESTWARD.

ATLANTIC...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED SE OF THE CAROLINAS NEAR
30N78W AND IS PRODUCING BROAD NE FLOW ACROSS THE W ATLC. THE
HIGH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR MOSTLY SUBSIDENCE CONDITIONS SO THERE
ARE NO SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NOTED N OF THE BAHAMAS W OF 76W.
THERE IS LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING SW ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE W ATLC FIRING UP ISOLATED SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 25N W OF
60W. A NEAR STATIONARY UPPER LOW IS CENTERED FARTHER E NEAR
30N47W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO A SECOND WEAKER
UPPER LOW N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 21N62W. TO THE E...IS A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH 32N54W SW ALONG 26N60W TO
HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W. BROAD SWATH OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM NEAR
THE UPPER LOW NEAR 31N46W TO 25N63W AND S OF 25N BETWEEN
60W-70W...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 23N TO OVER HAITI AND E
CUBA FROM 70W-75W INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS. THE E ATLC IS
DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER HIGH NEAR 25N37W WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS SW TO 16N45W. A SURGE OF
AFRICAN DUST IS LOCATED BENEATH THIS RIDGE AND EXTENDS GENERALLY
FROM 30W-45W. MOISTURE IS ON THE INCREASE ALONG THE AFRICAN
COAST AS THE NEW TROPICAL WAVE/LOW MOVES FURTHER OFF THE COAST.

$$
WALLACE



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