[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 161032
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE IRENE IS CENTERED NEAR 36.7N 63.5W...OR 760 NM SW OF
CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND...AT 16/0900 UTC MOVING E AT 8 KT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB. SEE THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. IRENE IS BECOMING ELONGATED TOWARD THE NE/SW
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE AREA FROM
36N-38N BETWEEN 61W-64W AND SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 34N-36N BETWEEN 62W-64W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA ALONG 18W/19W S OF 21W
MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS BENEATH THE W EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE
THAT IS ANCHORED WELL INLAND OVER AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE
FROM THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N19W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR
14N16W.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ALONG 20N40W TO 7N36W
MOVING WSW 10-15 KT. WAVE IS THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF
AFRICAN DUST THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE ATLC. THIS COUPLED WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH ARE CAUSING IT TO TILT NW/SE. DUE TO THE
DRY AIR...NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE.

A 1012 MB LOW...PREVIOUSLY TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN...IS CENTERED
NEAR 15N51W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER REMAINS
PARTIALLY EXPOSED WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 15.5N 18N BETWEEN 49W-52.5W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING DRAWN N FROM
S OF THE ITCZ INTO THE LOW WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE
7N46W-16N49W.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W S OF 21N MOVING W
15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED BENEATH N UPPER FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER
RIDGE TO THE W AND AND UPPER TROUGH TO THE E. THE DIFFLUENCE
BETWEEN THESE UPPER FEATURES IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN ESPECIALLY S OF 13N.

S GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W/92W S OF 20N MOVING
W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS BENEATH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH IS PUSHING
CONVECTION W OF THE WAVE AXIS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 20N FROM 92W-97W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 13N16W 10N30W 12N53W 11N62W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN
19W-23W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN
37W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN ELONGATED MID/UPPER LOW COVERS THE GULF EXTENDING FROM NEAR
TAMPICO MEXICO ENE TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR APALACHEE BAY.
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHES ALONG 29N/30N ACROSS FLORIDA TO E
TEXAS WITH A 1019 MB HIGH IN THE N GULF NEAR 29N87W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG THE N GULF COAST FROM
PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO HOUSTON TEXAS. DIFFLUENCE OVER THE S GULF
AIDING IN THE FORMATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 24N E OF 93W WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY
ALONG THE N COAST OF CENTRAL/WESTERN CUBA. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY
OUT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS DRY AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE E...BUT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH THU AS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED IN
BY A TROPICAL WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND THE ONE
APPROACHING THE W CARIBBEAN.

CARIBBEAN...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE S GULF OF
HONDURAS NEAR 17N87W AND IS PROVIDING A DIFFLUENCE GENERATING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
82W. IN FACT...THE W CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS AN AREA OF
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION S OF 12N BETWEEN 75W-84W.
FARTHER E...AN E/W MID/UPPER TROUGH THAT ORIGINATES IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO AN UPPER LOW S OF HISPANIOLA
NEAR 18N72W TO W JAMAICA NEAR 18N78W. ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH IS
PROVIDING STRONG W SHEAR TO THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...IT IS NOW
PULLING IN DRIER AIR FROM N ACROSS HAITI AND E CUBA TO OVER
JAMAICA BUT NOT E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO LINGER OVER THE W AND SW CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT FEW  DAYS...
CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE THE E
CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN UNDER THE DOMAIN OF PREDOMINANTLY DRY LOW
LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW.

ATLANTIC...
LARGE UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 31N75W AND IS
PUSHING MAINLY DRY AIR W OVER THE AREA W OF 70W. FARTHER E...A
MID/UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N47W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING SW TO PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N65W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM BEYOND 32N50W SSW TO 19N65W AND IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF THE CARIBBEAN
ISLANDS FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 61W-69W. THE UPPER LOW IS ALSO
PRODUCING LARGE AREAS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF
LINE 27N55W-32N45W. THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER
HIGH NEAR 22N33W WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE CAPPING A SURGE OF
AFRICAN DUST E OF A LINE FROM 11N32W 16N40W 27N40W.

$$
WALLACE



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