[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 160546
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0415 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE IRENE IS CENTERED NEAR 36.6N 64.4W...OR 790 NM SW OF
CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND...AT 16/0300 UTC MOVING E AT 12 KT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB. SEE THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. IRENE IS BECOMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NW
SHEAR RESULTING IN OUTFLOW TO BE LIMITED ON THE NW SIDE. IRENE
COULD POSSIBLY BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 48 HOURS AS IT BEGINS TO
MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS. HOWEVER...CLOUD TOPS REMAIN RELATIVELY
COLD WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE AREA
FROM 35N-38N BETWEEN 61.5W-66W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE WAS INTRODUCED ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 17W
S OF 22W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-19N W OF 17W
TO INLAND OVER AFRICA.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ALONG 21N38W TO 7N35W
MOVING WSW 10-15 KT. WAVE IS THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF
AFRICAN DUST THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE ATLC. THIS COUPLED WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH ARE CAUSING IT TO TILT NW/SE. DUE TO THE
DRY AIR...NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE.

A 1012 MB LOW...PREVIOUSLY TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN...IS CENTERED
NEAR 15N50W MOVING W 5-10 KT. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS PARTIALLY
EXPOSED WITH CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE AREA
FROM 15.5N-18N BETWEEN 47W-52W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING DRAWN N FROM THE ITCZ INTO THE
LOW WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE 6N44W-15.5N49W.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W/80W S OF 21N WITH
THE N PORTION TILTING SLIGHTLY BACK OVER E CUBA...MOVING W 15-20
KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED BENEATH N UPPER FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE
TO THE W AND AND UPPER TROUGH TO THE E. THE DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN
THESE UPPER FEATURES IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL TO
WESTERN CARIBBEAN.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA IS ALONG 89W/90W S
OF 20N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS BENEATH UPPER LEVEL E FLOW
WHICH IS PUSHING CONVECTION WELL W OVER S MEXICO AND IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 20N
FROM 92W-96W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF
22N E OF 95W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND S MEXICO.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 14N16W 8N29W 8N48W 10N62W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE
AXIS FROM 18W-22W AND FROM 36W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN ELONGATED MID/UPPER LOW COVERS THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE W
BAY OF CAMPECHE NE TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR THE BIG BEND
AREA. A 40 TO 50 KT NE JET IS PLUNGING DOWN THE W SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION ALONG THE TEXAS/MEXICO COAST AND NW GULF AND IS
REINFORCING THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH TO INLAND OVER SW MEXICO.
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHES ALONG 29N/30N ACROSS FLORIDA INTO E
TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INLAND OVER S
ALABAMA MOVING TO THE N GULF COAST OF THE W FLORIDA
PANHANDLE/ALABAMA WITH WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FIRING UP
ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA. DIFFLUENCE OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ARE AIDING IN THE FORMATION
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THAT AREA.
CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF BY THE END OF
THE WEEK AS DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM THE E...BUT SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH THU
AS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED IN BY A TROPICAL WAVE OVER CURRENTLY
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.

CARIBBEAN...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE S GULF OF
HONDURAS NEAR 17N86W AND IS PROVIDING A DIFFLUENCE GENERATING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
80W. IN FACT...THE ENTIRE W CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS  CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION BETWEEN 78W-85W. FARTHER E...AN E/W MID/UPPER TROUGH
THAT ORIGINATES IN THE CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
JUST S OF PUERTO RICO TO S OF JAMAICA NEAR 17N76W. ALTHOUGH THE
TROUGH IS PROVIDING STRONG W SHEAR TO THE SE CARIBBEAN...IT IS
NOT PULLING IN DRIER AIR FROM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND IS
INSTEAD PULLING MOISTURE E FROM THE CONVECTION LOCATED OVER THE
W CARIBBEAN. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE THE E CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
DOMAIN OF PREDOMINANTLY DRY LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW.

ATLANTIC...
LARGE UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 31N75W AND IS
PUSHING MAINLY DRY AIR W OVER THE AREA W OF 65W. FARTHER E...A
MID/UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N46W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING SW TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM BEYOND 32N52W SSW TO 22N58W AND IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF THE CARIBBEAN
ISLANDS FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 61W-66W. UPPER LOW IS ALSO
PRODUCING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 44W-56W.
THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER HIGH NEAR 21N33W WITH
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE CAPPING A SURGE OF AFRICAN DUST E OF A LINE
FROM 11N32W 20N43W 28N43W.

$$
WALLACE


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