[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 152358
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE IRENE IS CENTERED NEAR 36.7N 66.0W...OR 560
MILES...900 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA...AT
15/2100 UTC MOVING ENE 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80
KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980
MB. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. IRENE APPEARS TO
BE GOING THROUGH A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION PHASE WITH VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A DIMPLE FEATURE FORMING IN THE
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...POSSIBLY THE PRECURSOR TO AN EYE.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 34N-38N BETWEEN
63W-66W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

EAST ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ALONG 22N37W 14N35W 7N32W
MOVING W 10-15 KT. STRONG NELY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS PUSHING A SURGE OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE NRN
EXTENT OF THE WAVE...WHICH IS CAUSING IT TO TILT SE/NW. THERE IS
NO DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.

1010 MB LOW...PREVIOUSLY TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN...IS CENTERED
NEAR 15N50W MOVING WNW 5-10 KT. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS EXPOSED
WITH BURSTS OF CONVECTION OCCURRING TO THE N. THE SYSTEM IS
ENTERING INTO THE TERRITORY OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND SO IS UNDER STRONG S/SWLY SHEAR.
REDEVELOPMENT IS NOT LIKELY UNTIL THE SYSTEM ESCAPES THE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN FOR SEVERAL DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 16N-17N BETWEEN 50W-52W.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W/77W...TILTING BACK
INTO THE SRN BAHAMAS...MOVING W 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN
77W-80W...IS OVER JAMAICA FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 77W-80W...AND IS
OVER COLOMBIA AND PANAMA FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 75W-80W.

WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W S OF 20N MOVING W
10-15 KT.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE MID-LEVEL GYRE
EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO S OF NICARAGUA.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN
80W-85W...AND FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 86W-90W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 87W-90W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 15N17W 10N22W 9N40W 14N50W 10N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM
11N-13N BETWEEN 18W-20W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 6N-7N BETWEEN 34W-40W...FROM 8N-9N BETWEEN 43W-46W...AND
FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 43W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS INLAND OVER LOUISIANA NEAR
31N93W.  EVENING AIRMASS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE N GULF OF MEXICO FROM TEXAS TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE N OF
29N BETWEEN 84W-97W.  IN ADDITION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN
86W-92W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA FROM
22N-24N BETWEEN 80W-85W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN ELONGATED
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEWD TO
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  A 50 KT NLY JET IS ON THE W SIDE OF
THE CIRCULATION ALONG THE TEXAS/MEXICO COAST AND SHOULD SERVE TO
REINFORCE THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SURFACE
HIGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY.

CARIBBEAN...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE E
TIP OF HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W AND IS PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE TROPICAL WAVES NEAR 77W AND 88W RESULTING
IN ABUNDANT CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 77W. FARTHER
E...A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR
18N71W WITH SOME DRY AIR ALOFT.  FURTHER S...AIRMASS SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED INLAND OVER
VENEZUELA.  EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE TROPICAL WAVES MOVE W.

ATLANTIC...
A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLC
NEAR 33N70W AND IS PUSHING MAINLY DRY AIR WWD OVER THE BULK OF
THE AREA W OF 60W PRODUCING FAIR SKIES.  FARTHER E...A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 31N46W WITH A 1016 MB SFC LOW TO
THE W OF THAT NEAR 31N53W.  A TROUGH EXTENDS SW OF THE SFC LOW
TO NEAR 21N60W AND IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN
90 NM OF THE TROUGH.  THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ALSO PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM 26N-33N BETWEEN 44W-48W.  AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS NE TO NEAR 20N50W
AND IS PRODUCING S/SWLY SHEAR OVER FORMER T.D. TEN. THE E ATLC
IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 24N28W WITH
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE CAPPING A SURGE OF AFRICAN DUST E OF A LINE
FROM 11N26W 20N37W 28N37W. A NEW TRPCL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE E AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF LATER
TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.

$$
FORMOSA


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