[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 151049
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE IRENE IS CENTERED NEAR 36.1N 68.3W AT 15/0900 UTC OR
ABOUT 410 MILES...356 NM...EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
AND ABOUT 330 MILES...287 NM...NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/ WTNT24 KNHC
OR MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. DUE TO LARGE SCALE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH NEAR IRENE CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO SURROUND
THE EYE. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
CENTER IN THE N SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 95 NM IN THE S SEMICIRCLE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT
WITH A 1009 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12.5N. WAVE IS AT THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE AFRICAN DUST. SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF THE LOW NEAR 14N32.5W.

A 1008 MB LOW...PREVIOUSLY TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN...IS CENTERED
NEAR 14.5N48.5W MOVING W 5-10 KT. WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION ON THE SW EDGE OF THE SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS OF 16.5N47.5W.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W S OF 19N MOVING W
15-20 KT. SATELLITE SIGNATURE IS OBSCURED BY HIGH CLOUDS
POSITION IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM
10N-15N BETWEEN 74W-81W.

W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W/88W S OF 18N MOVING W
15-20 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOSTLY OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WITH A BAND
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE
14N83W-19N86.5W INCLUDING A PORTION OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 14N16W 12N26W 9N36W 8N43W 13N48W 12N62W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120
NM OF LINE 7N20W TO COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 11N16W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 8N-10N
AND WITHIN 60 NM OF 7.5N FROM 25W-78W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 53W-60W AND WITHIN
60 NM OF 11N FROM 41W-46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 60 NM OF 35.5W FROM 4N-8N.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS IN THE S/CENTRAL GULF NEAR 24N89W WITH A
SECOND WEAKER LOW OFF THE W COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 26N84W. THIS
IS GIVING MOST OF THE GULF UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW. EXCEPTION IS THE
NW GULF WHERE N FLOW FROM UPPER RIDGING OVER TEXAS IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N FROM 90W-95W.
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE N GULF FROM THE W ATLC ALONG
27N/28N TO A 1020 MB HIGH OVER THE N/CENTRAL GULF NEAR 28N87W
PRODUCING LIGHT/MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF. THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE OVER THE E GULF N OF 27N E OF 86W TO THE COAST OF
FLORIDA...OVER W CUBA S OF 24N FROM 82W-86W...AND IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE S OF 20N W OF 93W. WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE...ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N-28N
BETWEEN 87W-96W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE THE DOMINATE WEATHER PRODUCERS IN THE
CARIBBEAN. UPPER LOW IN THE GULF EXTENDS CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF 77W. AN INDUCED MID/UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM ACROSS NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA E TO OFF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA ALONG 12N W OF 74W. THE E CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY A
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N66W. ALL OF THESE
UPPER FEATURES ARE PROVIDING ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS THE DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES S OF 20N W OF
68W...WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD HIGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 20N W OF THE DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE UPPER HIGH LOCATED N OF THE
REGION NEAR HURRICANE IRENE. THIS IS GIVING THE AREA MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE/DRY UPPER AIR TO ALL BUT THE BAHAMA ISLANDS WHERE
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN IS BEING PUSHED N.
THUS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN
BE FOUND FROM THE ISLANDS WESTWARD INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
SURFACE RIDGING IS RE-ENFORCING THE DRY AIR WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM SE OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N63W TO A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR
29N71W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N44W SW ALONG
24N57W TO THE MID/UPPER LOW N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N66W TO
PUSHING E TO HISPANIOLA...THE TURKS AND THE CAICOS. DIFFLUENCE W
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 57W-62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N31N BETWEEN 43W-54W
AND FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 60W-68W. AT THE SURFACE...A DISSIPATING
COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO THE REGION NEAR 32N49W CONTINUING SW TO A
1015 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N53W TO 23N60W...AND A SECOND
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 33N42W SW TO 20N55W. THE E ATLC IS
DOMINATED BY AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED N OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
NEAR 20N29W WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE AREA W OF THE
CENTRAL ATLC DEEP LAYERED TROUGH. THIS IS BRING MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR TO THE AREA. THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES CLEARLY SHOW AN AREA OF AFRICAN DUST MOVING OFF THE COAST
FROM S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS E OF
35W. THIS WILL LIMIT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THAT AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...BROAD RIDGING COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 42W WITH
A 1026 MB HIGH LOCATED WELL N OF THE REGION.

$$
WALLACE



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