[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150007
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM IRENE IS NEAR 34.5N 69.8W AT 14/2100 UTC OR ABOUT
325 MILES... 525 KM... EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA AND
ABOUT 325 MILES... 525 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA.  THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB AND THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. SEE THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/
WTNT24 KNHC OR MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. IRENE
HAS WITH A FAINT EYE FEATURE AND GOOD SYMMETRY TO THE CDO.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL-DEFINED IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE
NORTHEAST.  IRENE MAY BECOME A HURRICANE OVERNIGHT AS SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE PROGRESSIVELY WARM AND SHEAR REMAINS
LOW.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
33N-36N BETWEEN 68W-70W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E ATLC WAVE IS ORIENTED FROM NNW TO SSE ALONG 19N30W TO 6N29W
MOVING W 10-15 KT WITH A 1010 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR
12N30W.  THE WAVE IS WELL-DEFINED IN SATELLITE WITH A LARGE
CYCLONIC ENVELOPE OF LOW CLOUDS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW POSSIBLE TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE LOW CENTER.  A NEW
OUTBREAK OF DUST/DRY AIR FROM AFRICA IS BEHIND THE WAVE E OF A
LINE FROM 24N31W 20N31W TO THE CAPE VERDES ISLAND THEN TO NEAR
DAKAR.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WAVE IS ALONG 74W/75W S OF 18N MOVING W 20
KT.  SATELLITE SHOWS CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE LOW CLOUDS.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 74W-78W.

W CARIBBEAN WAVE IS ALONG 84W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER NICARAGUA
AND N COSTA RICA FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 84W-87W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 14N17W 12N30W 9N35W 14N47W 10N60W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF 7N35W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA
FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 14W-17W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 17W-20W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 41W-44W...AND FROM 9N-12N
BETWEEN 53W-58W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING LIGHT
SW WINDS.  DIURNAL HEATING HAS CAUSED SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 80W-83W.  SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS OVER E TEXAS AND S LOUISIANA FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN
91W-95W.  LIKEWISE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM
19N-22N BETWEEN 87W-91W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OVER S FLORIDA NEAR 26N82W.  CYCLONIC TURNING AND
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO. EXPECT EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WITHIN 24 HOURS.
NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER FLORIDA DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVERHEAD.  AIRMASS EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TOMORROW OVER INLAND AREAS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE THE DOMINATE WEATHER PRODUCERS IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.  IN ADDITION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA FROM 7N-11N
BETWEEN 70W-76W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER HAITI FROM 17N-20N
BETWEEN 72W-74W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA
FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 75W-79W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...CYCLONIC
TURNING COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 13N AND W OF HISPANIOLA DUE
TO THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER S FLORIDA.  UPPER LEVEL
NORTHERLY FLOW COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 74W DUE TO A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION NEAR FRENCH GUIANA AT 4N50W.  SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
E CARIBBEAN E OF 64W...WHILE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA.  EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE
SURFACE TRADEWINDS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES
MOVING RAPIDLY W PRODUCING CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1018 MB HIGH IS OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 27N77W.  ANOTHER
1022 MB HIGH IS ON THE OTHER SIDE OF T.S IRENE NEAR 33N62W.  A
1013 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N52W. A TROUGH
EXTENDS SW TO 27N56W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 52W-58W.  ANOTHER 1016 MB LOW IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N47W.  A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 35N31W PRODUCING SURFACE RIDGING N OF 20N AND E OF
40W.  IN THE TROPICS...THE REMNANTS OF T.D. TEN IS LOCATED NEAR
15N48W.  CONVECTION HAS RETURNED NEAR THE CENTER WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 47W-48W.  THE LOW IS STILL BEING
SHEARED ALOFT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
IS CENTERED NEAR 35N60W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-50W.  A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 25N25W.

$$
FORMOSA


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