[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT74 KNHC 142032
SPFAT4
TROPICAL STORM IRENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER  41
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST SUN AUG 14 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 34.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE  69.8 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2PM AST WED AUG 17 2005

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

37.1N  66.5W      21  1  1  X 23   ST JOHN NB         X  1  2  2  5
38.4N  64.0W       2 11  3  1 17   MONCTON NB         X  X  2  3  5
39.5N  61.0W       X  3  8  3 14   YARMOUTH NS        X  3  3  2  8
BERMUDA            1  4  1  1  7   HALIFAX NS         X  1  4  4  9
MONTAUK POINT NY   X  1  X  1  2   SABLE ISLAND NS    X  X  4  6 10
PROVIDENCE RI      X  1  1  X  2   SYDNEY NS          X  X  1  7  8
NANTUCKET MA       1  3  1  X  5   EDDY POINT NS      X  X  3  5  8
HYANNIS MA         X  3  1  X  4   PTX BASQUES NFLD   X  X  X  6  6
BOSTON MA          X  1  1  X  2   BURGEO NFLD        X  X  X  6  6
PORTLAND ME        X  1  1  X  2   ILE ST PIERRE      X  X  X  7  7
BAR HARBOR ME      X  1  2  1  4   CAPE RACE NFLD     X  X  X  5  5
EASTPORT ME        X  1  2  2  5   HIBERNIA OILFLD    X  X  X  2  2

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM MON
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2PM MON TO  2AM TUE
C FROM  2AM TUE TO  2PM TUE
D FROM  2PM TUE TO  2PM WED
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM WED
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER PASCH


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