[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 141440
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005

VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH JUST EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON THE DEPRESSION.  THERE IS
STILL A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AS EVIDENCED BY LOW CLOUD MOTIONS AND
A QUIKSCAT PASS...BUT IT IS WEAK...20-25 KT.  BECAUSE THE SYSTEM
DOES NOT HAVE SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION...IT NO LONGER
MEETS THE CRITERIA FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THEREFORE ADVISORIES
ARE BEING DISCONTINUED AT THIS TIME.  SINCE THE VERTICAL SHEAR MAY
RELAX OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR
REGENERATION...AND THE DEPRESSION'S REMNANTS WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED.

THE SYSTEM HAS TURNED TO THE RIGHT AND INITIAL MOTION IS ROUGHLY
320/6.  THE REMNANTS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK...TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN...UNLESS
REGENERATION OCCURS.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      14/1500Z 13.8N  46.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 12HR VT     15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

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