[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140616
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS NEAR 32.0N 69.9W AT
14/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 300 MILES/480 KM WEST OF BERMUDA...AND
ABOUT 390 MILES/630 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS IN
NORTH CAROLINA. IT WAS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST 9 KT. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB AND THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. PLEASE
READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC OR MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 30N TO 32N
BETWEEN 68W AND 71W.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS NEAR 15.0N 45.5W AT
14/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 1090 MILES/1755 KM EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB AND
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC OR MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER OF T.D. TEN HAS BECOME EXPOSED...
AS PER 24-HOUR VISIBLE IMAGERY. THIS MAY LEAD TO WEAKENING
OF THIS SYSTEM IF THE SITUATION DOES NOT CHANGE. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N TO 16N
BETWEEN 43W AND 45W. IT IS LIKELY THAT AN UNUSUALLY DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE DEPRESSION MAY
PRODUCE AN ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH IT IS TOO HOSTILE FOR THE
DEPRESSION TO STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

THE LATEST EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE TO CLEAR THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WAS ALONG 29W/30W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS ALONG THE WAVE
NEAR 14N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 14.5N TO 16.5N
BETWEEN 28W AND 29W. LOW CLOUDS ARE MOVING CYCLONICALLY AROUND
THIS WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE CENTER.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE WAS ALONG 69W/70W SOUTH
OF 18N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A WEAKENING RIDGE.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W/80W SOUTH OF 16N...
SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA...MOVING WEST 15-20 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM PANAMA TO 12N BETWEEN 77W AND
81W. THE ITCZ RUNS ALONG 10N FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA WESTWARD.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ 17N17W 12N28W...12N33W 11N36W 13N43W...12N48W 10N54W
11N64W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF
9N49W. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 20W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WHICH
PROBABLY ABOUT ONE WEEK AGO WAS IN THE NORTHEASTERN AND THEN
NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THEN WHICH TRAVELLED NORTHWARD
NEAR 30N72W...AND THEN HAS DRIFTED WESTWARD AND NOW
SOUTHWESTWARD...FINDS ITSELF IN THE FLORIDA KEYS/STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS FLORIDA AND ITS GULF WATERS SOUTH
OF 30N EAST OF 85W. WEAKENING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN
THE CENTRAL TO SOUTH CENTRAL GULF. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS TEXAS INTO THE GULF WATERS...ENCOUNTERS
THE REMAINING BIT OF CYCLONIC FLOW...AND THEN EMPTIES INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AS UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRETTY FLAT WITH ONLY THE
1012 MB ISOBAR...AND THAT ONE IS MOSTLY IN THE WESTERN ONE-THIRD
OF THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA...NOT
INCREASING IN AERIAL COVERAGE OR STRENGTH DURING THE LAST SIX
HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS/
STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO A SECOND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 16N76.5W...ABOUT 95 NM SOUTH OF JAMAICA.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...IN AN AREA THROUGH WHICH THE
ITCZ IS PASSING...AND IN AN AREA OF SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW...SOUTH OF 13N WEST OF 76W. BROAD UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN BETWEEN HAITI AND THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING TO THE EAST
OF THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FLORIDA KEYS-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
A LINE FROM THE WATERS BETWEEN HAITI... JAMAICA...AND CUBA
WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE TO 15.5N80W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS NORTH OF 30N WEST OF
50W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALSO COVERS THE REST OF THE
ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 80W. ONE SURFACE
1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N36W AND A 1015 MB SECOND
CENTER IS NEAR 28N46W. A SURFACE 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS
IN BETWEEN THE 28N46W LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND THE CIRCULATION
AROUND TROPICAL STORM IRENE. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 20N EAST OF
30W.

$$
MT


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