[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 140300
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE DEPRESSION HAS
OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS TAKEN ON
THE APPEARN CE OF A SHEARED SYSTEM...WHILE WIND REPORTS FROM NOAA
BUOY 41041 AND A 13/2349Z SSMI OVERPASS SUGGEST THAT BROAD
CIRCULATION CENTER MAY BE LOCATED NEAR 14N46W...OR ABOUT 90 NMI
SOUTHWEST OF THE ADVISORY POSITION. HOWEVER...THE SSMI DATA MAY BE
DEPICTING ONE OF SEVERAL SMALL CIRCULATIONS THAT MAY BE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE REMNANTS OF THE ITCZ...SO THE OFFICIAL POSITION WAS
BASED ON CONTUNITY WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY MOTION AND KEPT NEAR
THE SIDE OF THE STRONGEST CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND 30 KT FROM SAB...BUT THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BEING KEPT AT 30 KT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 315/08. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
THE GFDL MODEL ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE CYCLONE MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 36 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER THAT. A STAIR-STEP MAY OCCUR IN THE TRACK
BETWEEN 48 AND 96 HOURS AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AS
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY FILLS AND MOVES WESTWARD TO THE
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...BUT THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE TOWARD A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY 120 HOURS.

THE DEPRESSION IS BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE IRENE-JUNIOR AS IT
UNDERGOES SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR BENEATH THE OTHERWISE
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN. THROW IN SOME DRY MID-LEVEL
AIR AND YOU HAVE THE MAKINGS FOR A DIFFICULT INTENSITY FORECAST.
THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER 48 HOURS BY THE SHIPS MODEL
...SO THE INTENSITY IT GRADUALLY INCREASED AFTER THAT. HOWEVER...
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS BELOW THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS
...THE LATTER OF WHICH MAKES THE CYCLONE A 70-KT HURRICANE BY 120H.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      14/0300Z 15.0N  45.5W    30 KT
 12HR VT     14/1200Z 15.8N  46.3W    30 KT
 24HR VT     15/0000Z 16.9N  47.3W    35 KT
 36HR VT     15/1200Z 17.5N  48.6W    35 KT
 48HR VT     16/0000Z 18.6N  50.3W    40 KT
 72HR VT     17/0000Z 20.3N  53.8W    45 KT
 96HR VT     18/0000Z 23.2N  57.0W    50 KT
120HR VT     19/0000Z 25.0N  61.5W    55 KT


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