[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140014
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM IRENE IS CENTERED NEAR 31.2N 69.5W AT 13/2100 UTC
ABOUT  285 MILES...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT  445
MILES...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MOVING NNW 8
KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB AND THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. SEE THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC OR MIATCPAT4/ WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR
THE CENTER FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 68W-71W.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN IS NEAR 14.3N 44.9W MOVING NW ABOUT 8
KT.  THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB AND THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/
WTNT25 KNHC OR MIATCPAT5/ WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. AN
UNUSUALLY DEEP UPPER-TROUGH BETWEEN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE
DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE
DEPRESSION TO STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THE CENTER FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN
43W-45W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E ATLC WAVE IS JUST W OF CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 27W S OF 21N
MOVING W 10-15 KT.  A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE
WAVE NEAR 14N.  A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS ARE NOTED.  CONVECTION IS
CONFINED TO THE ITCZ.

E CARIBBEAN WAVE IS ALONG 68W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT.  SOME
CURVATURE IS SEEN IN THE LOW CLOUDS.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-21N
BETWEEN 69W-73W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS S OF HISPANIOLA FROM
13N-17N BETWEEN 67W-73W.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WAVE IS ALONG 78W S OF 15N...S OF JAMAICA...
MOVING W 15-20 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN....PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA FROM 7N-11N
BETWEEN 77W-84W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 17N17W 10N28W 13N45W 10N50W 10N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 39W-42W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF 9N49W.
IN ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 20W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
1018 MB HIGH IS INLAND OVER S GEORGIA NEAR 31N34W.  WEAK RIDGING
IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING LIGHT SE WINDS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
23N-25N BETWEEN 87W-90W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER LOUISIANA FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 90W-93W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER FLORIDA FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN
81W-83W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N90W.  ANOTHER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W.  SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE PRODUCING THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  IN ADDITION SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 9N-12N
BETWEEN 72W-76W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER INLAND YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 88W-91W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 14N95W PRODUCING NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 83W.  A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS S FROM THE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO PANAMA NEAR 10N80W.
A RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM PUERTO RICO TO
VENEZUELA ALONG 66W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICS HAS A SERIES OF SURFACE FEATURES NAMELY
....A 1018 MB HIGH OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 27N77W...T.S. IRENE
NEAR 31.2N 69.5W...A 1020 MB HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
30N58W...A 1016 MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N46W...
AND A 1015 MB LOW OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 29N35W.  HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLANTIC N OF
25N AND E OF 30W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... CYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF
70W DUE TO THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA.  A RIDGE IS BETWEEN 60W-70W WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 66W.
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 30N40W.  A LONG TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 10N60W.  THIS
TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SHEAR OVER T.D. TEN OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.  A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 25N15W. A LONG RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS WSW TO
15N40W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS E OF 40W.

$$
FORMOSA


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