[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT74 KNHC 132020
SPFAT4
TROPICAL STORM IRENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER  37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST SAT AUG 13 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 31.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE  69.5 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2PM AST TUE AUG 16 2005

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

34.5N  70.0W      36  1  X  X 37   HYANNIS MA         X  X  4  5  9
36.5N  69.0W       4 16  2  1 23   BOSTON MA          X  X  2  5  7
38.5N  66.5W       X  3 11  3 17   PORTLAND ME        X  X  1  5  6
BERMUDA            X  1  3  3  7   BAR HARBOR ME      X  X  X  6  6
CAPE HATTERAS NC   X  4  1  X  5   EASTPORT ME        X  X  X  6  6
NORFOLK VA         X  1  2  X  3   ST JOHN NB         X  X  X  6  6
OCEAN CITY MD      X  1  3  1  5   MONCTON NB         X  X  X  5  5
ATLANTIC CITY NJ   X  1  2  2  5   YARMOUTH NS        X  X  X  8  8
NEW YORK CITY NY   X  X  3  2  5   HALIFAX NS         X  X  X  7  7
MONTAUK POINT NY   X  X  4  4  8   SABLE ISLAND NS    X  X  X  6  6
PROVIDENCE RI      X  X  3  5  8   SYDNEY NS          X  X  X  3  3
NANTUCKET MA       X  X  5  5 10   EDDY POINT NS      X  X  X  5  5

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2PM SUN TO  2AM MON
C FROM  2AM MON TO  2PM MON
D FROM  2PM MON TO  2PM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER AVILA


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