[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT74 KNHC 131440
SPFAT4
TROPICAL STORM IRENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER  36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST SAT AUG 13 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 30.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE  69.2 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  8AM AST TUE AUG 16 2005

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

33.5N  70.0W      58  X  X  X 58   NANTUCKET MA       X  X  2  8 10
35.5N  69.4W       9 19  1  X 29   HYANNIS MA         X  X  2  7  9
37.6N  68.4W       X  7 10  2 19   BOSTON MA          X  X  1  6  7
BERMUDA            X  X  2  2  4   PORTLAND ME        X  X  X  5  5
CAPE HATTERAS NC   X  1  2  1  4   BAR HARBOR ME      X  X  X  4  4
NORFOLK VA         X  X  2  2  4   EASTPORT ME        X  X  X  3  3
OCEAN CITY MD      X  X  5  2  7   ST JOHN NB         X  X  X  2  2
ATLANTIC CITY NJ   X  X  4  4  8   YARMOUTH NS        X  X  X  4  4
NEW YORK CITY NY   X  X  3  5  8   HALIFAX NS         X  X  X  2  2
MONTAUK POINT NY   X  X  3  6  9   SABLE ISLAND NS    X  X  X  2  2
PROVIDENCE RI      X  X  1  7  8

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8AM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  8AM SUN TO  8PM SUN
C FROM  8PM SUN TO  8AM MON
D FROM  8AM MON TO  8AM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8AM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER AVILA


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