[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Sat Aug 13 03:46:08 CDT 2005


WTNT74 KNHC 130845
SPFAT4
TROPICAL STORM IRENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER  35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST SAT AUG 13 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 30.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE  68.6 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2AM AST TUE AUG 16 2005

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

32.6N  69.8W      54  X  X  X 54   ATLANTIC CITY NJ   X  X  1  6  7
34.2N  69.8W      18 11  1  X 30   NEW YORK CITY NY   X  X  X  6  6
36.0N  69.2W       X 11  6  2 19   MONTAUK POINT NY   X  X  X  6  6
BERMUDA            X  1  2  4  7   PROVIDENCE RI      X  X  X  5  5
WILMINGTON NC      X  X  1  1  2   NANTUCKET MA       X  X  X  6  6
MOREHEAD CITY NC   X  X  2  2  4   HYANNIS MA         X  X  X  5  5
CAPE HATTERAS NC   X  1  4  3  8   BOSTON MA          X  X  X  4  4
NORFOLK VA         X  X  3  4  7   PORTLAND ME        X  X  X  2  2
OCEAN CITY MD      X  X  3  5  8

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2AM SUN TO  2PM SUN
C FROM  2PM SUN TO  2AM MON
D FROM  2AM MON TO  2AM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER KNABB


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