[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin
EMWIN Server
emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Sat Aug 13 03:46:08 CDT 2005
WTNT74 KNHC 130845
SPFAT4
TROPICAL STORM IRENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST SAT AUG 13 2005
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 30.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.6 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST TUE AUG 16 2005
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
32.6N 69.8W 54 X X X 54 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X 1 6 7
34.2N 69.8W 18 11 1 X 30 NEW YORK CITY NY X X X 6 6
36.0N 69.2W X 11 6 2 19 MONTAUK POINT NY X X X 6 6
BERMUDA X 1 2 4 7 PROVIDENCE RI X X X 5 5
WILMINGTON NC X X 1 1 2 NANTUCKET MA X X X 6 6
MOREHEAD CITY NC X X 2 2 4 HYANNIS MA X X X 5 5
CAPE HATTERAS NC X 1 4 3 8 BOSTON MA X X X 4 4
NORFOLK VA X X 3 4 7 PORTLAND ME X X X 2 2
OCEAN CITY MD X X 3 5 8
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2AM SUN TO 2PM SUN
C FROM 2PM SUN TO 2AM MON
D FROM 2AM MON TO 2AM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER KNABB
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