[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT74 KNHC 122042
SPFAT4
TROPICAL STORM IRENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER  33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST FRI AUG 12 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE  67.5 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2PM AST MON AUG 15 2005

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

30.8N  70.0W      66  X  X  X 66   NORFOLK VA         X  X  1  7  8
32.5N  70.5W      25  8  1  X 34   OCEAN CITY MD      X  X  X  7  7
34.0N  70.5W       1 17  2  1 21   ATLANTIC CITY NJ   X  X  X  5  5
BERMUDA            X  X  2  4  6   NEW YORK CITY NY   X  X  X  3  3
CHARLESTON SC      X  X  X  3  3   MONTAUK POINT NY   X  X  X  3  3
MYRTLE BEACH SC    X  X  1  4  5   PROVIDENCE RI      X  X  X  2  2
WILMINGTON NC      X  X  2  5  7   NANTUCKET MA       X  X  X  2  2
MOREHEAD CITY NC   X  X  4  6 10   HYANNIS MA         X  X  X  2  2
CAPE HATTERAS NC   X  X  6  6 12

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2PM SAT TO  2AM SUN
C FROM  2AM SUN TO  2PM SUN
D FROM  2PM SUN TO  2PM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER AVILA


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