[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 111935
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED AUG 10 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1845 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS NEAR 25.1N 62.6W AT
11/1500 UTC MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 15 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
WAS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC OR
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N TO 27N
BETWEEN 60W AND 64W. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRAIL
TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN 56W AND 60W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
THE MOST RECENT TROPICAL WAVE STILL IS ALONG THE AFRICA COAST
ALONG 16W/17W SOUTH OF 17N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOSTLY OVER LAND
FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 14W AND 18W. THE POSITION IS BASED
ON VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 33W/34W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A CYCLONIC SWIRL IN AT LEAST THE MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS IS NEAR 12N35W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ALONG THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE ITCZ FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN IS ALONG 47W/48W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 45W
AND 50W.

EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 63W/64W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WHICH COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ALSO IS
EAST OF 70W. A SEPARATE AREA OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 65W AND 80W.
LOW CLOUD MOVEMENTS IN THE VISIBLE IMAGERY REALLY HELPED IN
LOCATING THIS WAVE.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE WAS ALONG 82W/83W SOUTH
OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WEST OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STILL IS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW STILL COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF 70W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 13N18W 10N32W 9N41W 11N47W 11N50W 11N62W. NUMEROUS STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 23W AND 26W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN 35W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO INTERIOR CENTRAL MEXICO. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER HAS BEEN HANGING ON STILL ROUGHLY NEAR THE WESTERN
EXTREME OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A SURFACE TROUGH HAS BEEN
PASSING THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA TO THE LOW CENTER...AND
THEN WESTWARD POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND EVEN TO THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE GULF WATERS...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN CORNERS...AND IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WAS NEAR
27N73W...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING TROUGH TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS SQUEEZED IN BETWEEN THIS
TROUGH AND THE GULF OF MEXICO SYSTEM. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GULF WATERS AND ATLANTIC WATERS
NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA FOR AS LONG AS THESE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES DO NOT MOVE MUCH.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA WEST OF 70W WITH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W/64W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO
15 KT. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN THE AREA AND THERE IS
NOT MUCH AT ALL IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT
NOW. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W SOUTH OF 20N WITH SOME
PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF NICARAGUA AND ADJACENT WATERS.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM COLOMBIA
INTO PANAMA PROBABLY ARE RELATED TO THE ITCZ...WHICH IS ALONG
10N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND PANAMA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TROPICAL STORM IRENE IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN IS FILLED WITH A TROUGH/RIDGE COUPLET EAST
OF FLORIDA. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 27N71W CYCLONIC CENTER TO
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. A RIDGE IS SQUEEZED IN IMMEDIATELY
WEST OF THIS TROUGH. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWARD TO
28N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 8N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.
THE CENTER OF THIS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NEAR 17N54W. BROAD UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ARE
NORTH OF 15N EAST OF 40W. A SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS
AFRICA.

$$
MT




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