[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 111045
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU AUG 11 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES..
TROPICAL STORM IRENE IS CENTERED NEAR 24.2N 61.0W AT 11/0900 UTC
MOVING WNW AT 12 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO
45 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC OR MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. IRENE CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING
AND IS TO MOVE INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE SSW OF THE STORM IS STILL PRODUCING SOME SHEAR
BUT THE OUTFLOW IN THE REMAINING QUADRANTS CONTINUES TO IMPROVE.
CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO SURROUND THE LOW LEVEL CENTER AREA.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60/75 NM
OF LINE 23N60W-26N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
45/60 NM OF LINE 19N58W-23N58W-27N60W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17W/18W S OF 16N MOVING W 10 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE AXIS FROM
9N-12.5N BETWEEN 18.5W-22W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W S OF 16N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE
SIGNATURE INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON THE FIRST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W S OF 16N MOVING W 10 KT. SIGNATURE
INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
DUE TO DRY UPPER AIR N OF 13N NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W/61W S OF 18N MOVING W
15-20 KT. WAVE SIGNATURE CONTINUES TO BE AMPLIFIED DUE TO THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO T.S. IRENE. ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W/81W S OF 20N MOVING W 15-20
KT. WAVE REMAINS BENEATH N UPPER FLOW ON THE E EDGE OF AN UPPER
HIGH. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
DOTS THE AREA S OF 18N FROM 80W-87W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N15W 11N26W 7N40W 11N48W 12N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N
BETWEEN 35W-46W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT
THE THE AREA WITHIN 180 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 35W TO THE COAST OF
AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER HIGH IS IS RETROGRADING ACROSS TEXAS WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES TO ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA. ELONGATING MID/UPPER LOW REMAINS IN THE CENTRAL GULF
CENTERED NEAR 25N91W AND TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR 31N83W THROUGH THE NE GULF TO MEXICO N OF THE W
BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N98W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MOST OF THE
GULF EXCEPT IN THE SE GULF WHERE A MID/UPPER RIDGE FROM THE
CARIBBEAN EXTENDS S OF 26N E OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND ALONG THE
COAST OF S MEXICO IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N E OF 95W.
THIS SCENARIO IS GIVING MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT IN THE SE GULF WHERE DIFFLUENCE FROM THE RIDGE OVER
THE CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF
25N E OF 84W THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE...A
1020 MB HIGH IS IN THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N89W AND A 1014
SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE W FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N86W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT W OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
CENTERED NEAR 11N84W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N ACROSS CUBA
INTO THE SE GULF NEAR 26N84W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN W OF 78W TO ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. MOIST AIR IS
GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION S OF 18N FROM 80W-87W. MID/UPPER LOW IS N OF THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...SW OF T.S. IRENE...WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING INTO THE E CARIBBEAN TO 15N70W. DRY UPPER AIR COVERS
THE E HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 76W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MID/UPPER HIGH OVER THE NW ATLC AND THE WEAK MID/UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 30N78W WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ARE NOW
SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN
60 NM OF LINE FROM THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH NE TO
BEYOND 32N78W. A MID/UPPER LOW IS SW OF T.S. IRENE NEAR 21N64W
COVERING THE AREA FROM 15N-23N BETWEEN 57W-70W. MID/UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS N OF 27N FROM 34W-48W AND GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 28N FROM 42W-50W IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WEAK...INSIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW IS
CENTERED IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 22N42W. THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A MID/UPPER HIGH LOCATED NEAR
22N31W...THUS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION TO S TO ALONG THE ITCZ. AT
THE SURFACE...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS SPLIT BY T.S. IRENE WITH
A RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH BERMUDA SW TO OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND A RIDGE IN THE E ATLC EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB
HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC SE TO 17N38W.

$$
WALLACE



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