[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 110539
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU AUG 11 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES..
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE WAS AGAIN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM
AT 11/0300 UTC. TROPICAL STORM IRENE IS CENTERED NEAR 23.5N
59.8W AT 11/0300 UTC MOVING WNW AT 11 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS
35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC OR MIATCPAT4/
WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. IRENE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
THIS EVENING...THUS THE UPGRADE BACK TO TROPICAL STORM AND IS
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SW OF THE STORM IS STILL PRODUCING
SOME SHEAR BUT THE OUTFLOW IN THE REMAINING QUADRANTS HAS
IMPROVED. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
22N-27N BETWEEN 56W-61W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE WAS INTRODUCED AT 11/0000 UTC ALONG THE COAST OF
AFRICA NEAR 17W S OF 16N MOVING W 10 KT BASED ON THE UPPER AIR
SOUNDING FROM DAKAR. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER AFRICA.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK WAVE
CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SIGNATURE
INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
DUE TO DRY UPPER AIR N OF 13N NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20
KT. WAVE SIGNATURE IS BEING AMPLIFIED DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO T.S. IRENE. ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA.

CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W/78W S OF 20N MOVING W 15-20
KT. WAVE REMAINS BENEATH N UPPER FLOW ON THE E EDGE OF AN UPPER
HIGH WITH DRY AIR AT ALL LEVELS...THUS NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OR
CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 10N28W 9N40W 10N54W 11N62W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 125 NM
OF THE AXIS FROM 40W-43W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 120/150 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 40W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 29N95W
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES TO
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. MID/UPPER LOW REMAINS IN THE CENTRAL
GULF CENTERED NEAR 25N90W AND TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE NE
GULF INTO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MOST OF
THE GULF EXCEPT IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE A MID/UPPER
RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS S OF 25N E OF THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER FLORIDA BAY S OF 26N
FROM 81W-83W. THIS SCENARIO IS GIVING MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT ALONG THE NE GULF COAST WHERE
DIFFLUENCE FROM FROM THE RIDGE OVER THE SE U.S. IS GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 29N E OF 90W. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH IS IN THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR
28N90W. THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE GULF THROUGH FRI WITH
ONLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS BEING GENERATED BY DAYTIME HEATING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH DOMINATES THE W CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR
12N83W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N ACROSS CUBA TO THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 75W
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. MOIST AIR IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS W OF 80W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA INCLUDING CENTRAL AND WEST CUBA. MID/UPPER LOW IS N OF
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...SW OF T.S. IRENE...WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING INTO THE E CARIBBEAN TO 14N70W. DRY UPPER AIR COVERS
THE E HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 76W. THE UPPER HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT WNW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE N PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MID/UPPER HIGH OVER THE NW ATLC AND THE WEAK MID/UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 29N73W WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ARE ONLY
SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 24N FROM 74W-80W. A MID/UPPER
LOW IS SW OF T.S. IRENE NEAR 20N64W COVERING THE AREA FROM
14N-23N BETWEEN 59W-68W. MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
IS N OF 28N FROM 36W-50W AND GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF
29N FROM 42W-52W IN ASSOCIATION WITH A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
WEAK...INSIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW HAS FORMED IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL
ATLC NEAR 21N43W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A
MID/UPPER HIGH LOCATED NEAR 21N31W...THUS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION
TO S TO ALONG THE ITCZ. AT THE SURFACE...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
REMAINS SPLIT BY T.S. IRENE WITH A RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC
EXTENDING THROUGH BERMUDA SW TO OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND HIGH
PRESSURE COVERING THE E ATLC N OF 15N FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA
TO 55W.

$$
WALLACE


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