[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102352
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED AUG 10 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE AT 10/2100 UTC IS CENTERED NEAR 22.8
58.8W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 11 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WAS 30 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC OR MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.  IRENE HAS UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW N OF THE
CENTER.  A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION S OF THE CENTER NEAR 20N60W IS
PRODUCING SHEAR.  MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS HAMPERING DEVELOPMENT...
HOWEVER...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOW NEAR THE CENTER FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN 57W-59W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.  CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED N OF THE
ITCZ.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
8N-11N BETWEEN 30W-33W.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO DEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY
THIS WAVE.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED E OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN
57W-59W.

CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT.  NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA
FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 75W-79W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN
74W-76W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 12N17W 9N35W 10N50W 12N60W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W AFRICA FROM
14N-17N BETWEEN 13W-16W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
9N-11N BETWEEN 16W-19W...AND FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 34W-37W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-12N
BETWEEN 37W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1018 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N92W.  MOST OF
THE GULF HAS LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR SKIES.  AIRMASS EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER N FLORIDA FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 83W-86W...
ARE OVER S FLORIDA FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 80W-82W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN
81W-84W... AND IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 20N-22N
BETWEEN 86W-88W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N88W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER
THE W GULF W OF 92W.  EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT TO THE NE
GULF IN 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
IN ADDITION TO THE TROPICAL WAVE MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE
PRODUCING...NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION NEAR LAKE MARACAIBO
VENEZUELA FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 70W-72W.  PATCHES OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA
FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 80W-86W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR
11N82W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF 73W.  CYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW
IS E OF 73W DUE TO THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 20N60W.  EXPECT
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE TO ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC.  T.D. IRENE IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  BROAD RIDGING IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
DUE TO A 1022 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES AT 37N26W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A SMALL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OFF THE GEORGIA
COAST NEAR 31N77W.  A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS JUST E NEAR
29N71W.  CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 20N60W HAMPERING T.D.
IRENE.  VERY LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 18N28W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 5N-30N E OF
40W.

FORMOSA




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